***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.12.2020.-03.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 5.5 6.2 4.9 0.9 56.8 56.6 1.8 4.9 6.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 5.3 5.5 4.8 0.8 54.0 56.1 1.7 5.0 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 7.3 7.0 5.3 0.8 54.6 55.8 3.1 6.7 8.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 2.5 2.0 2.6 1.0 54.5 57.7 -2.4 1.9 3.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 5.8 5.7 3.7 1.0 55.0 57.7 2.6 5.0 7.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 5.0 4.8 3.3 0.9 57.7 57.9 1.7 3.9 6.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 5.4 5.2 4.9 0.9 54.5 57.0 1.5 5.0 6.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 0.1 0.0 3.6 0.9 55.8 58.0 -2.2 -0.4 0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 7.2 6.9 4.5 0.9 52.9 56.7 3.5 6.5 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 5.9 5.4 4.1 0.9 54.4 57.2 3.1 5.1 7.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 5.9 5.7 3.8 1.1 55.7 58.5 3.3 4.9 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 6.0 6.9 3.8 1.0 56.3 59.3 3.1 5.1 8.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 5.6 6.1 3.5 1.1 59.2 60.5 2.5 4.4 7.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 7.7 7.4 5.1 0.8 52.4 55.1 4.2 7.2 8.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 5.1 4.7 3.2 0.8 52.3 56.3 2.0 4.7 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 6.4 7.2 3.5 1.1 58.2 59.4 2.6 5.4 8.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 4.6 4.7 4.9 0.8 54.9 55.9 1.4 4.3 5.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 3.3 3.2 4.3 0.9 54.9 57.2 0.8 2.5 5.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 6.3 6.3 5.0 0.8 53.8 55.3 2.8 5.8 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 2.9 2.8 3.0 1.0 58.7 58.4 -1.5 2.3 4.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 7.2 6.8 4.9 0.9 54.1 56.3 3.1 6.5 7.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 5.5 5.5 4.9 0.7 53.0 54.3 2.4 5.1 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 5.9 5.6 5.4 0.8 53.8 54.6 2.2 5.5 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 7.9 8.1 4.9 0.9 53.2 56.2 4.4 7.4 8.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 4.8 5.1 3.7 0.9 57.1 57.1 2.1 4.4 6.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 7.1 5.1 3.4 1.1 59.6 61.5 1.9 4.5 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 7.0 7.5 4.6 0.9 57.4 57.1 2.3 6.3 8.6 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 6.4 6.2 2.9 0.9 53.9 56.9 3.6 6.0 6.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 2.3 1.9 3.9 0.9 55.6 57.6 -0.5 1.3 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 5.6 5.2 4.8 0.9 54.1 56.3 1.7 5.1 6.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------