***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.12.2020.-20.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 2 98 100 6.5 9.0 8.2 4.5 86.9 86.3 3.1 3.6 4.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 5 95 100 6.7 8.2 7.6 3.9 83.9 82.7 2.2 3.1 4.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 7 93 100 8.0 9.7 8.6 4.4 85.5 83.8 3.9 4.9 6.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 2.4 1.9 4.0 2.9 69.9 71.2 -2.1 0.5 1.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 13 87 100 7.1 9.0 7.0 4.2 84.0 83.1 3.2 4.5 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 8 92 100 7.5 10.0 6.2 4.3 86.0 84.5 3.8 4.7 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 4 96 100 6.5 8.1 7.7 4.1 86.2 85.3 1.8 2.7 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 12 88 100 1.3 2.3 6.6 4.3 84.8 82.8 -1.4 -0.2 1.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 12 88 100 8.3 9.7 7.7 4.2 84.7 83.6 4.1 5.3 6.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 12 88 100 7.3 9.3 7.3 4.5 85.8 83.8 3.8 4.5 5.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 11 89 100 7.8 9.3 7.7 4.4 86.0 84.2 3.6 4.8 6.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 12 88 100 8.8 10.1 6.6 4.0 84.0 82.2 3.3 5.4 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 12 88 100 8.7 10.4 7.5 4.1 84.8 83.2 2.8 4.4 5.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 19 81 100 8.0 10.0 8.4 4.5 85.2 81.7 3.6 4.6 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 5.5 5.6 5.5 2.7 74.3 73.5 2.5 3.2 5.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 10 90 100 9.1 10.6 7.1 4.4 86.2 84.8 3.1 5.4 6.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 9 91 100 5.7 7.7 7.0 3.6 83.3 81.7 2.0 2.8 3.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 10 90 100 4.2 6.9 7.5 4.9 87.7 85.7 1.2 2.6 3.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 8 92 100 7.3 8.4 7.7 3.8 82.3 81.3 2.5 3.7 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 7 93 100 5.0 7.7 6.5 4.9 89.2 86.9 0.1 2.7 4.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 7 93 100 8.0 9.8 8.5 4.4 85.8 84.7 3.8 4.9 5.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 19 81 100 6.2 7.5 6.9 3.2 79.0 78.4 2.1 3.2 4.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 12 88 100 6.6 8.0 7.7 3.8 80.2 79.9 2.5 3.4 5.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 15 85 100 7.9 10.0 8.4 4.5 85.1 83.3 4.4 5.1 6.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 6 94 100 6.9 8.5 7.5 4.3 85.2 84.5 2.9 4.1 4.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 13 87 100 7.4 9.2 5.8 3.4 84.0 80.8 3.3 4.7 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 2 98 100 8.1 9.8 8.1 4.5 87.8 87.1 3.8 4.9 6.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 7.3 7.7 5.0 3.0 72.9 72.4 2.1 4.8 6.5 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 6 94 100 4.6 7.1 7.2 5.0 89.4 87.7 0.4 2.4 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 3 97 100 7.1 8.4 8.0 4.2 86.2 84.8 2.2 3.4 4.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------