***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.12.2015.-10.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 24.7 23.7 27.6 66.5 34.6 32.9 23.3 32.2 50.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 23.9 28.7 27.7 72.1 37.5 35.5 24.7 35.4 46.8 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 34.4 40.7 27.4 66.6 32.6 32.0 40.8 43.8 55.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 32.5 32.4 27.6 58.6 28.1 27.7 35.2 45.3 54.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 72 28 0 100 33.4 37.3 27.1 60.2 26.5 27.3 42.3 50.7 63.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 72 28 0 100 29.1 29.5 28.8 66.3 28.1 30.0 31.8 37.8 48.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 25.3 32.7 28.0 73.9 40.0 36.7 30.1 38.0 47.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 48.8 50.1 31.0 65.2 28.8 29.9 50.7 61.9 69.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 26.5 28.3 31.0 68.8 32.5 32.0 28.5 38.8 48.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 35.2 36.3 32.5 69.1 30.3 31.6 37.0 48.1 53.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 74 26 0 100 31.9 33.4 26.6 63.4 27.4 29.0 38.1 45.9 51.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 29.1 29.2 26.5 63.3 28.5 29.1 31.3 39.2 50.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 32.5 31.2 27.0 63.5 25.2 28.7 38.4 45.2 59.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 40.7 43.8 33.6 70.4 31.7 32.8 47.5 54.8 66.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 26.2 23.1 24.2 50.7 26.0 25.4 33.3 47.6 54.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 73 27 0 100 28.4 31.7 25.9 62.8 27.1 28.8 32.6 43.0 55.7 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 23.9 28.2 27.7 73.6 39.7 36.6 26.9 34.6 44.7 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 34.6 33.7 36.6 72.6 32.5 33.8 33.8 43.3 48.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 26.1 26.8 27.4 69.9 33.4 34.0 26.3 40.6 51.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 36.6 42.6 41.0 66.6 30.8 31.9 45.6 56.9 65.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 31.6 32.7 29.3 67.1 33.0 31.8 32.7 43.3 50.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 24.6 28.3 28.4 71.4 35.5 34.8 27.4 36.0 42.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 25.5 25.4 28.0 67.6 29.8 31.9 27.4 37.2 44.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 39.0 39.4 32.8 70.9 30.7 33.3 40.2 51.3 56.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 29.8 27.5 30.2 62.8 31.7 29.7 27.7 43.8 60.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 26.7 27.2 26.2 59.7 25.6 26.7 29.8 35.8 54.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 24.5 27.6 30.6 67.8 35.8 33.1 27.4 31.7 61.1 29 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 27.9 27.5 25.3 56.0 27.5 26.9 29.8 37.9 45.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 54.7 54.8 39.0 71.9 33.6 34.0 54.6 69.2 82.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 22.9 29.1 27.5 70.6 36.6 34.7 26.6 37.0 47.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------