***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.01.2016.-10.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 5.3 5.2 6.6 81.8 57.6 46.8 1.5 4.6 6.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 5.2 4.1 6.4 83.0 58.0 47.0 1.4 3.8 7.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 8.7 10.2 7.0 86.5 59.3 48.4 5.0 7.4 11.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 3.8 8.5 7.2 82.9 55.5 45.6 3.5 7.9 10.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 3.5 10.5 7.8 92.2 59.0 49.8 3.2 6.2 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 2.6 7.5 7.9 93.6 61.0 48.5 1.2 5.7 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 5.0 4.0 6.2 81.1 56.7 46.8 2.5 3.7 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 5.1 12.7 8.6 90.6 62.0 49.3 3.9 9.9 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.2 9.8 8.4 96.9 63.9 51.7 1.5 6.0 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 8.7 10.6 9.1 97.5 64.2 51.3 0.9 5.6 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 2.1 8.3 7.5 93.3 61.8 50.0 1.0 4.3 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 2.0 6.1 7.3 89.8 61.1 49.4 1.3 4.1 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 2.7 6.9 7.7 94.8 59.9 49.8 2.0 5.4 9.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.3 13.6 9.6 103.0 64.4 52.2 6.5 10.6 14.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 1.9 4.5 6.3 69.6 51.7 39.9 0.9 4.3 9.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 7.8 8.3 7.1 92.5 59.7 49.3 1.1 6.4 9.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 5.6 7.7 6.3 83.9 59.2 46.6 1.2 3.9 9.4 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 2.7 9.8 10.6 104.0 65.7 52.9 1.5 5.9 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 8.2 7.4 6.7 85.5 58.2 47.6 3.6 7.1 7.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 3.4 8.5 11.6 92.4 60.4 49.7 2.4 7.1 10.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 8.0 9.5 7.7 91.9 62.0 49.9 2.9 6.9 9.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 6.5 8.3 6.9 88.1 59.6 46.9 1.9 4.8 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 8.2 8.3 7.3 90.0 58.8 48.9 2.7 7.2 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 11.6 10.4 9.3 100.3 64.9 51.9 4.2 10.0 10.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 8.1 8.6 7.9 86.6 56.0 47.9 4.3 7.4 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 2.2 6.7 7.5 88.5 57.7 48.2 1.5 4.4 8.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 6.7 6.2 7.5 84.1 54.7 47.3 2.3 5.7 8.0 29 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 1.0 5.0 6.7 79.6 54.9 43.7 0.4 2.3 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 3.4 11.2 11.3 102.1 63.7 52.4 4.2 7.0 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 4.9 4.4 6.4 82.0 57.4 47.1 2.8 4.0 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------