***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.12.2015.-03.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 4.6 11.4 9.3 95.7 56.6 45.1 3.9 10.7 14.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 3.5 9.2 9.6 104.2 58.7 46.5 3.7 7.8 10.1 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 5.8 13.7 9.1 91.3 54.5 44.3 7.2 12.4 16.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 5.2 13.0 9.1 84.8 53.1 45.1 6.7 11.1 17.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 5.6 11.8 9.1 85.8 53.0 44.1 7.3 10.5 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 4.6 9.1 10.4 95.7 54.6 45.4 4.2 7.8 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 4.5 12.0 9.8 110.2 63.3 47.5 3.6 9.1 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 8.3 13.4 10.4 96.0 57.3 47.4 7.3 10.9 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 3.7 7.8 9.6 86.7 54.5 44.8 4.0 7.6 9.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 4.8 10.2 10.3 91.6 55.4 46.3 5.2 9.4 12.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 5.5 10.2 8.9 93.3 57.7 47.5 8.3 9.9 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 5.3 10.1 9.2 97.8 58.3 47.2 6.9 9.1 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 12.0 12.6 9.6 96.5 53.1 45.3 4.5 10.8 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 5.9 10.2 10.7 87.4 49.5 44.4 7.9 10.3 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 11.1 8.1 8.7 78.2 51.5 44.3 2.0 7.9 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 11.5 10.6 8.9 93.8 55.4 46.8 5.3 10.0 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 4.1 11.5 9.9 111.0 62.5 48.7 4.1 8.1 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 3.6 7.6 11.5 92.9 54.9 46.0 4.2 7.4 10.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 3.4 7.9 9.3 97.1 56.0 45.3 4.9 6.9 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 5.3 10.2 13.7 97.6 57.0 47.4 6.8 9.5 12.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 4.3 9.2 9.3 88.1 53.5 44.2 5.0 9.0 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 3.4 6.9 9.7 103.8 57.9 47.7 3.7 6.0 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 3.9 8.0 9.2 89.6 52.8 44.0 2.5 7.1 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 5.1 9.8 10.3 88.7 52.9 44.6 8.3 9.8 12.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 4.6 12.6 10.1 91.6 57.2 44.6 6.2 11.3 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 4.1 8.1 9.8 98.7 57.0 46.0 5.5 7.3 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 4.5 11.0 10.2 97.7 56.8 45.5 7.1 10.1 13.4 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.4 9.1 8.7 81.6 52.2 44.8 3.4 7.7 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 8.4 14.7 12.7 95.6 55.4 46.6 8.3 13.6 16.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 3.1 8.7 9.4 101.4 56.5 45.5 3.3 6.8 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------