***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.12.2015.-27.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 2.3 6.8 8.8 78.2 56.3 44.6 2.3 4.8 8.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 4.7 11.7 8.8 84.1 56.3 45.2 6.1 9.3 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 5.9 10.5 8.4 80.0 57.0 44.9 6.8 9.9 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 5.8 9.8 7.3 65.9 54.3 42.9 5.5 9.3 15.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 6.1 11.8 6.8 63.0 47.5 37.9 8.0 13.0 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 6.0 11.5 7.1 68.2 53.0 41.3 5.2 10.9 16.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 3.9 11.3 9.0 84.3 55.3 45.4 4.5 7.6 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 10.3 16.5 8.3 72.6 54.1 41.3 11.4 15.9 19.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 4.0 8.7 8.3 76.2 55.3 44.6 4.9 7.8 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 5.7 10.8 8.7 77.1 52.5 43.3 4.9 10.8 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 5.5 9.9 6.9 70.4 53.1 41.3 6.9 9.7 17.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 5.0 11.1 7.0 69.1 55.5 41.6 6.1 9.1 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 4.4 7.6 6.5 64.8 52.5 40.0 6.4 7.0 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 7.8 14.3 9.9 85.0 56.8 44.2 8.5 12.4 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 11.7 6.4 6.5 56.7 51.2 39.8 1.9 6.4 18.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 11.4 11.1 6.6 68.2 54.7 42.1 5.4 9.1 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 3.8 9.7 8.7 85.9 54.9 45.5 5.7 8.8 11.3 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 4.3 8.7 10.1 81.7 52.6 45.0 3.9 8.2 10.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 5.3 11.9 8.7 83.7 57.8 45.1 6.0 10.1 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 6.4 12.5 12.0 76.6 52.3 42.7 5.8 12.1 17.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 4.6 10.2 8.3 76.4 57.7 44.5 8.2 9.8 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 4.9 9.8 9.0 85.2 58.8 45.5 5.3 9.0 13.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 3.9 9.2 8.8 83.5 56.9 44.2 5.7 7.6 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 4.6 9.8 9.3 83.2 56.1 45.2 6.1 8.4 15.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 4.6 9.5 9.0 71.4 50.5 40.5 4.6 9.5 17.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 5.2 9.6 6.3 58.9 47.9 39.3 5.6 11.2 15.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 3.8 8.2 9.6 77.7 52.6 42.6 3.2 7.6 16.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 3.9 8.6 6.5 61.2 53.7 41.6 3.3 7.1 17.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 8.3 15.3 11.0 80.6 54.1 43.8 12.4 14.9 20.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 4.2 10.0 8.8 82.4 56.2 45.2 5.1 8.0 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------