***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.12.2015.-20.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 72 28 0 100 3.4 4.4 3.0 23.9 27.0 23.5 4.8 7.8 11.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 3.6 4.0 2.9 26.4 33.6 25.8 3.9 7.6 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 78 22 0 100 3.5 4.5 2.9 23.0 24.4 21.1 5.9 8.8 16.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 85 15 0 100 4.8 7.3 4.0 24.1 23.7 20.7 9.0 10.9 14.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 91 9 0 100 3.0 2.6 3.5 23.1 19.8 17.8 6.3 14.6 17.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 92 8 0 100 2.2 2.2 3.3 24.4 20.5 18.3 5.2 7.8 14.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 4.8 6.8 3.0 28.1 37.1 27.8 4.0 9.0 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 92 8 0 100 8.7 8.4 3.6 23.2 19.5 17.9 10.7 16.9 20.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 86 14 0 100 3.2 5.2 4.7 32.5 26.6 24.7 5.8 9.1 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 89 11 0 100 4.5 5.4 4.4 29.0 21.7 20.9 9.0 13.4 17.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 91 9 0 100 1.8 3.1 3.3 22.6 20.1 17.9 8.2 12.0 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 95 5 0 100 2.9 2.8 3.1 21.8 20.2 17.4 7.1 12.1 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 95 5 0 100 4.9 4.9 3.2 22.2 18.3 15.9 8.0 11.9 18.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 87 13 0 100 4.7 4.3 3.4 23.5 19.9 18.9 8.5 14.0 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 90 10 0 100 1.0 0.6 2.6 16.6 21.7 18.0 4.5 9.2 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 93 7 0 100 2.9 2.6 3.3 22.7 20.7 17.7 5.0 10.8 15.7 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 4.9 5.9 2.8 25.5 36.7 25.9 2.9 10.1 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 92 8 0 100 3.5 3.7 4.5 28.9 21.8 20.7 7.8 9.9 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 2.7 1.8 2.8 24.1 29.0 23.4 3.7 7.4 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 96 4 0 100 3.3 3.1 3.7 19.9 18.2 16.2 7.3 14.0 18.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 79 21 0 100 3.9 4.2 4.1 29.3 26.9 24.7 5.7 11.4 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 3.1 2.7 2.7 22.9 32.1 24.0 3.0 7.4 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 80 20 0 100 2.0 1.8 2.7 21.6 23.0 20.6 3.3 6.9 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 88 12 0 100 4.3 4.7 3.9 27.3 21.5 20.9 6.6 11.3 15.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 83 17 0 100 2.3 1.0 3.1 20.6 20.2 17.5 3.1 9.1 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 98 2 0 100 1.9 1.9 2.6 17.7 17.4 14.7 6.4 11.0 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 75 25 0 100 3.4 2.8 3.4 25.1 26.1 22.4 4.1 9.1 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 88 12 0 100 2.1 2.2 3.4 22.0 22.3 19.5 5.1 11.4 17.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 94 6 0 100 5.8 5.5 4.1 25.3 19.9 18.6 15.2 20.5 23.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 3.2 2.8 2.9 26.1 31.7 25.0 3.3 7.1 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------