***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.12.2015.-10.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 5.6 6.3 4.8 1.9 77.9 74.0 2.6 3.6 5.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 5.8 6.3 4.8 2.2 77.9 75.6 2.3 3.8 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 20 80 100 7.0 7.4 5.0 2.0 77.4 74.9 4.0 5.1 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 22 78 100 2.1 2.7 2.9 2.2 79.5 76.3 -0.5 0.6 1.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 6.5 7.1 3.6 2.0 78.9 75.3 3.4 4.7 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 6.0 6.4 2.8 1.6 75.3 71.3 3.3 4.3 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 5.4 6.0 4.6 2.1 78.2 75.3 1.7 3.3 4.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 21 79 100 0.8 1.1 3.4 1.9 80.7 75.8 -1.6 -0.4 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 7.5 8.2 4.5 2.0 79.9 76.0 4.3 5.3 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 6.5 7.3 3.9 1.9 81.3 75.5 3.7 4.5 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 7.0 7.9 3.5 1.8 78.8 74.3 3.7 4.7 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 7.0 7.6 3.4 1.8 77.8 73.6 4.1 5.4 6.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 6.7 7.0 3.1 1.5 74.4 71.2 3.8 5.1 6.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 7.4 8.1 4.8 2.0 79.8 74.3 4.6 5.6 7.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 5.7 6.3 3.6 2.4 80.3 77.4 2.1 4.1 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 7.2 7.6 3.1 1.7 76.0 72.7 4.2 5.7 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 5.4 5.9 4.6 2.2 76.6 75.6 1.9 3.1 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 3.8 4.6 3.9 1.9 80.1 74.8 1.8 2.8 3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 6.2 6.7 5.0 2.2 78.4 75.7 3.1 4.2 5.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 20 80 100 4.0 4.5 2.7 2.0 79.9 76.3 0.0 2.2 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 6.8 7.4 4.8 2.0 77.7 75.3 3.9 5.0 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 21 79 100 5.8 6.2 4.8 2.3 76.9 75.7 2.8 3.9 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 6.0 6.7 5.1 2.2 78.8 75.5 3.1 4.1 5.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 7.7 8.5 4.7 1.9 79.2 74.3 4.4 5.6 7.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 5.5 6.2 3.7 2.0 79.7 75.4 2.4 3.5 5.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 5.8 6.1 2.7 1.5 70.3 70.3 3.4 4.7 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 6.9 7.5 4.2 1.9 79.1 74.1 3.3 5.1 6.6 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 27 73 100 6.7 7.4 3.3 2.3 78.8 75.9 3.2 4.8 6.7 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 3.8 4.1 3.5 1.9 78.2 75.3 0.7 2.8 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 5.7 6.2 4.8 2.1 77.4 75.3 2.5 3.7 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------