***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.12.2015.-27.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 7.0 9.1 6.1 3.2 88.4 80.2 2.1 3.1 6.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 16 84 100 7.0 8.7 6.1 3.5 91.5 82.5 2.1 3.5 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 16 84 100 9.1 11.3 6.3 3.3 89.1 81.3 3.2 4.6 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 10 90 100 3.5 5.5 4.4 3.6 91.1 84.7 -1.7 0.0 1.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 11 89 100 8.2 10.9 5.0 3.4 89.1 83.4 2.5 3.9 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 17 83 100 6.3 9.9 4.5 3.1 88.3 80.8 1.9 3.6 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 17 83 100 6.5 8.3 6.0 3.5 91.2 81.8 1.4 3.1 6.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 11 89 100 0.7 3.0 4.8 3.2 88.4 82.6 -2.2 -1.0 -0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 13 87 100 8.7 11.7 5.9 3.3 88.7 82.5 2.8 4.9 7.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 13 87 100 7.4 10.8 5.4 3.3 88.4 82.2 2.0 4.6 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 12 88 100 8.0 11.1 4.8 3.1 87.5 82.5 2.6 5.0 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 12 88 100 8.3 10.3 4.6 2.9 86.4 81.6 2.5 4.7 5.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 14 86 100 8.1 9.9 4.3 2.8 85.7 80.3 2.6 4.5 5.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 9 91 100 9.3 10.7 6.3 3.4 87.2 81.6 2.9 5.2 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 14 86 100 5.0 7.5 4.8 3.7 91.6 85.1 1.6 2.8 4.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 12 88 100 8.1 11.4 4.4 3.0 86.8 81.8 2.7 4.9 5.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 16 84 100 6.3 7.5 6.0 3.6 91.7 83.0 1.3 3.4 6.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 12 88 100 4.5 6.6 5.5 3.3 86.3 81.0 1.3 3.0 3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 15 85 100 8.0 10.4 6.3 3.5 91.3 82.4 1.9 4.0 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 10 90 100 4.8 7.2 4.2 3.3 87.2 82.3 -0.5 0.4 2.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 13 87 100 8.6 11.2 6.1 3.3 88.3 81.9 2.8 4.3 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 14 86 100 6.9 9.1 6.2 3.6 91.7 83.2 1.9 4.0 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 14 86 100 7.5 9.3 6.6 3.5 91.0 82.3 2.5 4.1 7.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 12 88 100 8.7 11.8 6.2 3.3 86.5 81.2 2.5 5.0 8.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 16 84 100 6.6 8.7 5.0 3.4 90.9 82.9 2.5 3.1 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 11 89 100 6.6 8.2 4.0 2.7 85.1 80.5 2.5 3.7 5.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 20 80 100 8.3 10.9 5.6 3.2 88.9 80.9 2.9 4.2 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 12 88 100 5.8 9.5 4.7 3.6 90.7 84.5 2.2 3.9 4.8 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 11 89 100 4.5 6.5 4.9 3.2 84.2 81.0 0.1 1.7 2.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 16 84 100 7.0 8.9 6.1 3.4 90.7 81.7 1.9 3.3 6.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------