***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.12.2015.-20.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 91 9 100 3.9 4.1 4.2 1.0 61.3 59.0 3.1 3.6 4.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 90 10 100 3.5 4.1 4.1 1.2 61.0 60.5 2.2 3.1 4.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 91 9 100 5.2 5.5 4.4 1.1 61.6 59.7 3.9 4.9 6.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 91 9 100 0.8 1.6 2.3 1.4 62.9 60.2 -2.1 0.5 1.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 91 9 100 4.8 5.4 3.2 1.3 60.1 59.5 3.2 4.5 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 95 5 100 4.8 4.8 2.0 0.7 55.9 54.1 3.8 4.7 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 90 10 100 3.1 3.0 3.8 1.0 58.8 59.3 1.8 2.7 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 91 9 100 0.0 0.5 3.1 1.7 59.1 60.1 -1.4 -0.2 1.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 88 12 100 5.7 6.2 4.2 1.5 61.9 61.5 4.1 5.3 6.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 90 10 100 4.8 4.7 3.6 1.6 58.3 59.6 3.8 4.5 5.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 94 6 100 5.0 5.1 3.2 1.1 59.0 57.9 3.6 4.8 6.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 93 7 100 5.6 5.5 3.1 1.3 58.5 58.0 3.3 5.4 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 94 6 100 4.7 5.2 3.2 0.9 57.6 55.3 2.8 4.4 5.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 90 10 100 5.0 5.6 4.3 1.5 55.9 59.1 3.6 4.6 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 88 12 100 3.6 5.2 4.2 1.7 66.6 63.9 2.5 3.2 5.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 95 5 100 5.6 5.9 2.8 0.9 58.8 56.9 3.1 5.4 6.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 90 10 100 3.1 3.4 3.8 1.2 62.6 60.9 2.0 2.8 3.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 92 8 100 2.7 2.8 3.4 1.6 56.6 58.7 1.2 2.6 3.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 90 10 100 4.1 4.6 4.3 1.3 61.8 61.2 2.5 3.7 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 89 11 100 2.9 3.5 2.6 2.1 60.0 61.5 0.1 2.7 4.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 90 10 100 5.2 5.8 4.4 1.3 61.7 60.3 3.8 4.9 5.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 90 10 100 3.6 4.5 4.2 1.5 64.3 63.2 2.1 3.2 4.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 90 10 100 3.7 5.0 4.4 1.3 62.8 61.4 2.5 3.4 5.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 92 8 100 5.4 5.7 4.2 1.4 56.9 58.4 4.4 5.1 6.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 92 8 100 4.3 4.3 3.5 1.1 60.1 59.2 2.9 4.1 4.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 95 5 100 4.9 4.8 2.3 0.7 52.8 52.7 3.3 4.7 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 91 9 100 5.2 5.8 3.7 0.9 60.5 58.3 3.8 4.9 6.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 90 10 100 5.2 6.1 3.1 1.5 64.0 61.1 2.1 4.8 6.5 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 91 9 100 2.6 3.1 3.2 2.0 58.3 60.2 0.4 2.4 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 92 8 100 3.7 3.8 4.2 1.1 60.8 60.2 2.2 3.4 4.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------