***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.12.2015.-10.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 1.6 70.5 69.8 -3.5 -2.2 -0.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 -1.1 -0.5 -0.7 1.8 75.8 72.1 -3.9 -2.7 -0.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 0.9 1.5 -0.8 1.7 74.8 71.8 -1.7 -0.6 0.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 -3.8 -3.4 -3.0 2.5 77.7 76.8 -6.7 -6.1 -4.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 -1.0 -0.7 -3.0 2.1 73.5 74.0 -4.3 -3.0 -1.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 21 79 100 -1.8 -1.4 -4.6 2.0 73.2 73.0 -5.1 -3.3 -1.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 -0.9 -0.2 -0.7 1.8 76.9 72.1 -3.9 -2.5 -0.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 -5.3 -5.0 -3.9 2.2 75.7 73.7 -8.4 -6.6 -6.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 -0.5 0.0 -2.1 2.0 73.2 73.9 -3.7 -2.2 -0.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 -1.3 -0.6 -3.3 2.0 74.6 73.0 -4.0 -3.0 -0.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 -1.3 -0.5 -3.4 2.1 72.3 72.2 -4.1 -3.0 -0.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 -1.7 -1.5 -3.6 2.1 72.0 72.0 -4.8 -3.3 -2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 -0.9 -1.0 -4.2 1.7 69.8 68.7 -4.3 -2.4 -1.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 -0.5 0.0 -2.0 2.1 76.1 74.2 -2.8 -1.4 -0.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 -1.1 -0.6 -2.2 2.4 77.2 76.8 -4.2 -3.0 -2.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 -0.4 -0.2 -3.9 2.1 72.1 71.6 -2.9 -2.2 -0.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 -1.4 -0.6 -0.6 2.0 78.7 73.4 -3.6 -3.0 -1.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 -2.9 -2.6 -3.6 2.0 74.7 73.4 -6.9 -4.2 -2.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 -0.8 -0.2 -0.8 1.8 75.8 72.2 -3.4 -2.2 -0.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 22 78 100 -4.5 -3.8 -5.0 2.0 76.2 73.1 -9.2 -6.8 -4.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 -0.7 -0.2 -1.1 1.9 74.3 73.0 -3.9 -2.0 -0.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 -1.4 -0.4 -0.5 2.0 80.0 73.9 -3.4 -2.9 -1.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 -1.2 -0.6 -1.0 1.8 75.7 73.2 -3.9 -2.3 -1.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 25 75 100 -1.2 -0.8 -2.2 2.0 74.9 74.1 -4.1 -2.2 -1.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 -0.7 -0.2 -1.8 2.1 80.1 76.4 -3.3 -2.4 -1.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 22 78 100 -1.2 -0.9 -3.9 1.9 70.3 69.8 -4.0 -2.8 -1.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 0.0 0.5 -1.2 1.8 75.9 72.9 -3.3 -1.4 -0.3 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 18 82 100 -2.0 -1.8 -2.9 2.5 76.7 75.7 -5.0 -3.6 -2.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 -3.2 -3.1 -4.2 2.0 74.6 73.3 -6.2 -4.5 -3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 -0.5 -0.1 -0.7 1.7 73.2 71.3 -3.4 -1.9 -0.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------