***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.12.2015.-27.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 -0.2 0.6 0.6 2.7 82.0 75.0 -3.4 -1.7 -0.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 22 78 100 0.3 1.8 0.7 3.0 85.4 78.6 -3.6 -1.9 -0.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 2.0 3.3 0.3 2.7 81.3 75.9 -2.0 -0.6 1.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 11 89 100 -3.3 -2.9 -2.0 3.7 81.6 80.8 -7.7 -5.8 -5.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 17 83 100 -0.5 0.0 -2.0 3.4 79.0 77.5 -3.5 -1.8 -1.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 -1.7 -1.0 -3.4 3.1 74.2 75.1 -5.2 -3.5 -1.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 0.0 2.0 0.8 3.0 85.4 78.2 -4.2 -2.0 -0.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 24 76 100 -6.1 -5.5 -2.6 3.6 77.7 76.8 -9.0 -8.0 -6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 22 78 100 0.4 1.1 -1.1 3.1 79.4 76.2 -2.9 -1.8 -0.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 0.0 0.5 -2.1 3.3 77.0 75.5 -4.0 -1.6 -0.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 -0.2 0.2 -2.4 3.3 76.5 74.7 -3.6 -2.0 -1.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 -1.1 -0.5 -2.5 3.3 75.1 74.4 -4.2 -2.9 -1.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 -0.8 -0.2 -3.1 2.7 69.9 70.7 -4.5 -2.2 -0.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 1.3 2.1 -0.7 3.5 83.9 79.1 -2.9 -1.4 0.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 15 85 100 -1.0 -0.4 -1.3 3.6 81.4 80.6 -4.3 -2.9 -1.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 -0.1 0.1 -2.9 3.2 73.4 74.2 -3.2 -1.7 -0.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 19 81 100 0.0 1.1 1.0 3.3 87.8 79.8 -3.5 -1.9 -1.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 19 81 100 -2.0 -1.8 -2.2 3.5 76.2 75.8 -5.5 -3.3 -2.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 22 78 100 0.2 1.2 0.5 2.9 84.4 78.4 -3.2 -1.8 -0.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 18 82 100 -4.0 -3.5 -3.4 3.9 76.8 76.9 -9.5 -6.8 -4.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 0.2 1.1 -0.1 2.9 79.4 76.2 -3.0 -2.0 -0.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 18 82 100 -0.1 1.0 0.9 3.3 87.6 80.3 -3.2 -2.3 -0.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 -0.3 0.8 0.2 2.9 83.9 78.3 -2.9 -1.9 -0.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 18 82 100 0.4 1.1 -1.0 3.3 79.1 77.1 -3.6 -2.7 -0.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 13 87 100 -0.3 1.3 -0.8 3.4 85.8 81.3 -3.0 -1.8 -0.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 -1.0 -0.6 -2.7 3.1 76.2 74.1 -3.8 -2.8 -1.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 19 81 100 1.3 3.7 0.0 3.0 83.8 78.0 -3.4 -1.4 -0.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 14 86 100 -1.3 -0.9 -1.9 3.7 79.8 79.9 -4.9 -3.3 -2.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 21 79 100 -2.8 -2.3 -2.6 3.7 75.4 75.7 -6.0 -5.2 -3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 0.7 2.3 0.6 2.8 83.9 77.1 -3.5 -2.0 0.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------