***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.12.2016.-08.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 21.7 24.5 30.8 70.2 35.4 34.5 23.9 33.0 50.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 24.0 25.7 28.1 74.8 37.3 37.9 24.3 35.1 49.1 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 34.8 40.6 30.8 70.2 33.5 33.9 39.9 45.7 57.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 35.0 35.1 35.0 71.7 34.8 34.9 33.4 46.3 57.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 38.8 44.3 36.3 70.7 31.8 33.2 44.3 54.1 61.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 30.8 31.5 32.4 66.8 29.1 29.5 33.9 39.5 52.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 25.4 29.1 27.1 72.6 35.4 36.6 25.8 39.1 53.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 51.9 50.7 37.4 68.7 30.2 31.4 51.6 62.6 74.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 26.4 28.1 36.7 70.5 31.9 32.8 28.6 34.4 48.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 37.1 37.3 38.8 70.2 30.0 31.7 37.4 50.1 53.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 36.0 40.2 35.0 68.2 30.0 31.5 40.5 46.3 50.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 30.8 30.3 32.9 65.9 28.6 29.8 34.6 39.7 53.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 34.4 34.4 35.6 65.8 25.0 28.2 38.3 46.1 61.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 47.0 39.1 38.9 70.1 27.1 31.3 48.6 62.4 74.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 29.4 37.9 33.0 73.9 38.7 38.0 31.6 46.8 56.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 30.6 32.5 34.1 67.2 27.8 30.2 35.4 45.7 55.6 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 26.3 28.2 27.4 75.1 37.7 37.4 27.2 37.3 41.8 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 35.8 31.5 40.0 69.2 28.0 30.5 33.1 45.8 49.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 28.8 24.1 29.1 74.4 36.5 37.1 23.8 38.7 53.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 39.1 46.4 48.6 71.8 32.3 33.3 46.6 51.4 65.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 33.6 31.6 34.5 70.2 32.7 33.3 31.7 46.0 50.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 27.3 27.5 29.1 76.3 38.5 37.8 25.7 35.5 42.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 28.8 24.5 31.1 72.4 32.7 34.6 24.8 41.2 47.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 41.0 39.3 36.3 68.5 27.8 30.7 44.6 48.8 55.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 30.8 30.7 36.0 71.8 34.2 34.8 29.5 41.6 54.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 30.3 31.9 32.4 66.6 27.2 29.8 32.9 42.4 52.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 28.2 28.5 32.9 71.4 35.6 35.0 24.6 43.5 59.8 29 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 30.3 29.1 33.2 72.1 35.5 35.4 28.5 42.0 47.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 56.0 56.3 42.8 69.6 28.2 30.8 57.5 70.3 81.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 25.2 30.8 28.6 73.2 36.3 37.1 23.2 39.4 49.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------