***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.01.2017.-08.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 2.3 5.6 9.1 89.1 59.2 44.9 1.6 4.5 5.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 1.8 5.2 8.2 93.8 61.6 47.7 1.8 3.9 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 9.8 8.8 9.4 93.3 59.3 47.6 3.8 7.2 10.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 5.1 11.9 10.7 101.7 62.1 50.2 3.4 10.0 12.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 5.4 11.6 11.1 99.1 62.0 48.3 4.2 9.1 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 3.5 7.5 9.7 90.4 56.1 47.4 2.7 6.4 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 2.2 6.4 7.4 85.8 60.4 44.8 1.8 4.0 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 7.1 14.4 11.4 96.9 59.2 48.3 7.8 13.1 15.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 4.1 9.4 11.7 98.1 61.2 48.0 3.5 8.3 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.9 11.6 12.1 97.3 59.5 48.1 3.0 9.6 13.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 3.8 9.3 10.7 98.4 60.1 48.6 2.8 8.3 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 3.3 9.8 10.1 96.1 58.6 48.2 1.6 7.1 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.8 10.1 10.6 93.6 57.5 47.5 3.3 6.8 15.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.4 12.0 12.0 94.7 56.4 48.1 7.7 10.5 14.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 6.5 12.8 10.7 107.3 67.3 52.5 0.9 3.0 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.3 10.3 10.3 95.9 58.4 48.2 2.7 6.9 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 1.4 4.4 7.6 90.3 58.3 45.8 1.8 3.0 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 8.6 8.2 12.5 94.3 56.8 47.1 2.7 7.1 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 3.2 7.5 8.7 95.6 61.6 48.5 2.1 5.4 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 10.9 8.7 14.7 95.1 58.5 47.3 2.8 7.3 13.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 4.4 9.1 10.7 95.6 59.0 47.9 4.5 7.4 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 1.8 6.6 8.2 92.0 60.9 46.4 2.6 4.1 8.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 6.6 7.0 9.5 95.6 60.2 49.0 2.9 5.2 9.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.1 9.8 11.3 94.0 56.5 47.9 5.1 9.3 12.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 4.4 8.6 10.5 92.1 57.3 45.9 3.6 7.9 10.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 2.3 7.5 9.7 93.0 57.0 47.4 2.3 4.4 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 2.4 5.0 9.5 87.8 57.2 44.1 3.2 4.2 5.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 1.2 12.5 10.5 104.8 63.8 51.3 0.8 2.5 13.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 13.7 12.6 13.2 93.9 55.5 46.9 6.8 9.9 15.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 2.4 5.9 8.4 91.8 62.2 47.3 2.1 4.6 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------