***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.12.2016.-01.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 5.6 12.3 9.8 92.6 55.1 45.0 7.1 12.1 14.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 4.0 14.6 9.2 104.8 64.9 46.5 5.8 9.0 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 8.0 16.4 9.6 91.9 54.9 44.1 8.8 15.6 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 4.2 11.0 9.6 83.6 54.2 41.7 5.3 9.3 16.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 4.9 9.6 9.9 80.7 50.3 40.8 5.4 9.6 17.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 3.0 6.6 9.3 81.4 50.5 41.3 3.9 6.6 12.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 4.1 14.6 8.9 102.5 65.0 46.2 4.6 10.0 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 6.9 11.8 10.3 80.6 49.9 40.5 5.3 11.9 19.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 3.5 5.3 10.5 81.2 47.6 40.6 3.0 6.4 13.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 4.3 8.6 10.8 81.5 48.4 40.9 4.9 8.8 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 4.9 8.8 9.6 80.3 50.4 40.4 3.6 8.8 13.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 4.2 7.4 9.2 78.4 48.9 39.5 5.4 7.7 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 3.1 7.3 9.6 79.0 49.2 40.2 3.6 7.7 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 9.2 19.8 11.4 89.7 53.6 44.3 8.1 18.3 23.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 2.1 7.7 9.8 90.2 59.9 43.5 2.2 5.6 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 3.4 7.6 9.4 79.8 49.8 40.3 2.2 7.8 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 4.0 13.1 8.7 103.6 64.7 46.6 5.0 8.7 14.0 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 4.6 8.8 11.2 83.0 48.8 41.4 4.0 9.4 13.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 4.8 12.7 9.4 103.6 62.7 46.4 6.0 11.4 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 4.7 10.5 13.5 84.8 52.0 42.4 5.2 10.2 16.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 5.1 10.4 10.3 87.0 51.3 42.7 6.6 10.3 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 4.2 16.4 9.2 106.1 64.1 47.5 4.1 8.9 17.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 5.6 12.9 9.6 96.4 57.4 45.4 6.0 11.3 13.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 7.0 12.9 10.4 85.1 51.0 42.3 7.7 11.9 17.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 5.9 14.7 10.3 86.8 51.9 44.0 6.9 14.6 16.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 3.3 7.9 8.9 79.7 47.9 40.0 4.3 8.2 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 4.6 11.1 10.1 91.0 53.4 45.0 7.0 10.5 13.6 29 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 2.3 5.2 9.5 86.1 56.0 41.7 3.2 5.1 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 7.9 14.9 12.0 83.5 49.1 41.7 11.7 15.6 21.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 4.4 10.5 9.3 100.5 60.7 46.0 6.1 9.6 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------