***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.12.2016.-25.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 3.5 6.2 7.9 65.7 49.3 40.8 3.0 6.4 9.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 4.2 7.8 7.3 70.7 50.7 44.1 5.4 7.8 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 11.3 8.4 8.0 67.2 49.7 42.9 4.7 8.5 16.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 6.9 11.6 9.5 73.0 48.2 41.7 6.4 11.8 16.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 15.1 10.6 9.3 69.7 44.8 40.9 8.4 12.1 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 8.3 13.2 8.9 69.1 42.4 39.6 5.3 14.1 15.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 4.7 9.4 7.4 72.6 52.7 44.5 4.9 8.8 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 16.4 12.8 10.3 72.5 46.3 42.4 10.1 13.6 19.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 4.2 7.1 9.5 70.1 43.2 40.3 6.0 7.7 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 13.1 11.0 10.0 72.9 45.0 42.6 6.6 11.5 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 13.9 10.2 9.3 69.6 45.2 40.7 8.0 12.6 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 10.8 7.6 9.3 69.1 44.9 40.0 6.1 8.8 15.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 6.9 9.2 9.6 69.6 42.8 40.4 6.9 10.9 17.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 13.9 11.8 10.5 71.9 48.2 43.9 9.9 12.4 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 4.6 9.8 9.2 78.8 52.3 44.1 1.9 9.3 11.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 6.2 9.9 9.2 68.7 44.6 40.0 6.8 10.1 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 3.7 8.6 7.8 77.0 54.4 44.0 3.9 7.3 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 9.6 6.0 10.6 72.1 45.6 41.9 4.5 8.1 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 10.0 8.2 7.4 69.4 49.9 43.6 4.8 8.2 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 10.6 8.6 13.8 76.7 48.8 44.5 5.3 8.7 14.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 4.7 7.1 8.9 67.5 46.4 40.2 6.0 7.3 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 3.6 7.5 8.2 78.5 53.7 44.8 4.5 6.9 10.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 8.3 7.0 8.1 68.1 50.1 42.5 3.9 6.9 8.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 11.1 8.4 9.7 70.0 46.4 42.3 5.7 9.9 12.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 5.4 9.9 9.5 69.0 48.6 40.9 5.5 10.5 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 5.0 9.4 9.9 72.8 42.8 40.6 7.1 9.6 14.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 5.6 9.1 8.6 67.6 49.1 40.8 4.2 9.3 15.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 4.6 7.7 8.9 73.9 48.5 42.3 3.7 7.9 13.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 15.6 13.0 11.8 73.5 46.1 42.7 7.9 13.4 19.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 4.3 8.2 7.4 70.1 51.0 44.2 4.7 8.0 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------