***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.12.2016.-18.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 81 19 0 100 2.4 4.1 4.0 36.0 31.2 27.8 4.4 6.0 9.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 77 23 0 100 3.4 4.0 3.5 35.7 33.7 25.8 3.9 7.4 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 81 19 0 100 2.6 4.9 3.9 33.6 29.5 25.4 5.5 7.5 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 4.8 6.2 5.2 37.7 32.6 27.6 6.2 8.0 12.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 79 21 0 100 5.5 6.0 6.0 41.2 25.9 26.3 7.8 9.5 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 84 16 0 100 2.1 2.8 4.5 32.8 23.7 23.8 3.3 6.8 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 78 22 0 100 3.4 4.5 3.4 34.8 31.5 26.1 4.6 7.9 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 82 18 0 100 10.7 9.0 5.4 33.9 21.8 22.6 13.3 20.1 23.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 78 22 0 100 3.9 5.3 4.9 36.4 26.2 24.6 5.7 7.7 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 82 18 0 100 6.0 6.2 6.0 37.3 23.5 23.9 8.3 12.2 16.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 79 21 0 100 4.7 4.5 5.4 35.8 22.9 24.1 6.2 11.4 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 84 16 0 100 4.2 2.8 4.2 29.8 20.9 21.5 6.6 13.2 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 86 14 0 100 4.7 4.7 5.8 34.4 22.1 22.6 6.6 11.4 18.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 82 18 0 100 5.6 5.5 5.0 32.3 23.1 23.4 10.2 13.4 15.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 75 25 0 100 1.7 2.8 3.3 27.1 31.9 25.0 3.1 5.2 11.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 81 19 0 100 4.1 4.7 5.3 35.3 23.3 24.3 6.3 8.7 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 81 19 0 100 3.3 4.6 3.3 34.7 32.6 25.3 4.7 8.7 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 89 11 0 100 4.5 4.9 5.7 34.8 22.4 22.8 8.3 11.4 15.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 82 18 0 100 2.7 4.6 3.6 35.2 33.1 25.3 4.6 7.1 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 87 13 0 100 5.1 6.5 6.6 36.1 22.3 23.0 8.2 12.9 17.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 76 24 0 100 3.4 4.5 4.6 35.6 27.0 24.7 6.1 7.8 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 82 18 0 100 4.1 5.3 3.5 34.8 32.9 25.1 5.3 6.9 13.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 87 13 0 100 2.5 3.2 3.9 35.1 29.5 24.3 3.4 7.5 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 86 14 0 100 5.7 4.8 4.8 32.7 23.0 23.2 7.9 12.8 15.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 78 22 0 100 2.9 2.7 5.7 43.5 29.7 29.6 3.0 6.8 8.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 86 14 0 100 3.1 3.8 4.0 29.3 21.2 21.8 6.7 9.4 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 77 23 0 100 2.3 3.6 4.6 40.8 31.7 29.9 3.7 6.6 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 3.0 3.5 4.3 32.9 31.0 26.0 3.6 7.9 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 87 13 0 100 8.0 10.6 5.8 34.0 21.2 22.4 15.9 20.8 26.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 81 19 0 100 2.3 3.8 3.6 35.1 32.5 26.3 3.8 7.6 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------