***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.12.2016.-08.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 4.3 4.1 3.9 0.7 54.2 56.4 2.8 3.9 4.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 4.2 3.9 3.8 0.6 52.7 54.6 2.5 3.7 4.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 5.5 5.5 4.3 0.6 56.3 55.7 4.0 5.1 6.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 0.9 1.3 1.8 1.0 59.6 60.3 -0.5 0.5 1.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 4.9 5.6 2.9 0.9 60.3 59.8 3.7 4.5 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 4.9 5.1 2.6 1.1 62.7 62.6 3.2 4.5 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 4.0 3.7 3.7 0.6 53.0 54.5 2.0 3.6 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 0.0 0.2 3.0 1.2 64.7 63.5 -1.5 -0.2 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 6.0 6.5 3.8 0.9 60.9 59.9 4.3 5.6 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 5.2 5.6 3.5 1.1 63.1 62.0 3.9 4.7 5.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 5.2 5.6 3.2 1.0 61.1 60.8 4.0 4.7 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 5.9 6.0 3.1 1.1 63.3 62.5 4.3 5.5 6.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 5.4 5.5 3.1 1.1 62.5 62.1 4.3 4.9 5.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 6.2 6.4 4.4 0.9 59.0 58.3 4.5 5.7 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 4.5 4.6 2.9 0.8 57.9 59.0 2.5 4.2 5.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 6.0 6.3 2.8 1.1 62.0 61.3 4.9 5.5 6.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 4.0 3.6 3.7 0.5 51.3 54.2 2.1 3.6 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 3.2 3.7 3.6 1.3 64.8 63.4 2.1 2.9 3.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 4.7 4.5 4.0 0.6 54.1 54.9 3.3 4.1 5.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 3.3 3.6 2.6 1.4 68.1 66.2 0.8 1.8 3.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 5.5 6.1 4.1 0.7 58.5 57.5 3.9 5.1 6.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 4.6 4.2 3.9 0.5 52.6 54.1 2.6 4.2 5.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 4.7 4.4 4.3 0.6 56.2 55.7 3.2 4.2 5.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 6.1 6.6 4.3 1.0 60.5 59.4 4.5 5.6 6.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 4.3 4.5 3.0 0.8 56.1 57.7 2.7 3.9 5.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 5.6 5.9 2.7 1.2 65.5 63.5 3.5 4.9 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 5.4 5.3 3.6 0.7 54.8 56.7 3.6 4.9 6.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 5.5 5.6 2.4 1.0 59.8 60.0 3.6 5.1 6.2 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 3.2 3.5 3.3 1.4 67.1 65.1 0.7 2.2 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 4.2 3.9 3.8 0.6 53.9 55.1 2.6 3.7 4.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------