***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.01.2017.-08.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 4.3 4.5 3.7 0.9 53.1 57.2 0.4 2.9 5.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 4.5 3.5 3.4 0.7 52.6 55.2 0.6 3.4 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 6.3 5.7 3.9 0.7 51.2 55.2 1.7 5.4 8.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 2.3 1.8 1.3 0.8 55.9 56.2 -2.3 1.4 3.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 5.5 6.6 2.3 0.8 58.4 56.5 1.7 4.6 6.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 6.3 6.2 2.5 1.0 59.5 58.6 1.4 4.6 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 4.2 3.3 3.5 0.8 52.6 56.0 0.5 3.2 5.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 0.5 -0.4 2.6 0.9 58.4 58.1 -2.6 -0.9 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 6.8 7.6 3.2 0.7 57.5 55.9 2.6 6.0 8.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 1.8 6.3 3.0 0.9 57.6 56.9 2.9 4.3 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 7.5 6.7 2.4 0.9 60.0 57.9 2.5 4.3 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 8.5 7.6 2.6 1.0 60.5 59.0 2.7 6.3 7.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 7.1 7.0 2.4 1.2 60.9 60.5 2.6 4.1 8.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 6.5 5.5 3.8 0.6 53.2 54.1 2.3 5.3 8.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 5.2 4.1 2.0 0.6 53.6 55.1 1.0 3.9 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 7.8 7.1 2.3 1.0 60.5 59.1 2.8 5.4 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 3.8 2.7 3.5 0.6 50.4 54.3 0.3 2.6 5.7 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 1.1 3.1 3.4 1.0 57.8 57.7 1.5 2.8 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 4.8 3.7 3.6 0.7 51.8 54.7 0.4 3.6 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 2.5 3.0 2.2 1.2 58.8 59.8 -0.6 1.7 4.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 6.7 6.9 3.5 0.7 54.0 55.6 1.7 6.0 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 4.5 2.8 3.5 0.5 48.4 53.6 1.2 2.9 6.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 5.1 4.4 3.9 0.6 51.3 53.8 1.2 4.2 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 7.5 7.4 3.7 0.8 54.7 55.7 2.6 6.5 8.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 5.1 5.0 2.4 0.8 55.6 56.5 1.1 4.3 6.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 6.7 5.9 2.6 1.3 61.3 63.0 2.1 5.1 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 6.7 6.6 3.3 0.9 55.2 57.5 1.0 6.1 7.9 29 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.0 5.7 1.7 0.8 56.4 55.9 1.1 4.0 6.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 3.5 3.6 3.0 1.1 58.1 58.9 0.6 2.8 5.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 4.9 4.1 3.4 0.8 52.7 55.9 0.3 4.0 6.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------