***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.12.2016.-01.01.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 6.4 6.9 4.5 1.9 70.7 63.5 2.8 4.6 6.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 6.4 5.6 4.1 1.7 67.2 61.7 2.0 4.3 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 7.2 7.7 4.7 1.8 65.9 62.1 3.1 6.7 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 3.0 2.5 2.1 1.9 66.3 64.0 -1.4 1.0 2.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 5.5 7.2 3.1 1.9 68.0 63.3 3.0 4.6 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 6.8 6.8 3.1 2.1 70.0 64.7 1.8 4.5 6.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 4.7 5.4 4.1 1.7 67.4 62.0 1.5 4.0 5.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 1.1 1.1 3.4 2.1 70.8 65.7 -2.8 0.0 0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 7.5 8.2 4.0 1.9 67.9 63.0 3.0 6.9 8.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 42 58 100 7.3 7.9 3.8 2.1 69.7 64.4 2.2 5.4 7.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 6.5 7.5 3.3 2.0 69.8 64.3 2.9 6.0 6.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 8.2 7.6 3.4 2.1 70.1 65.9 3.2 6.6 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 7.5 7.6 3.1 2.2 72.5 65.9 2.7 5.3 7.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 8.0 8.6 4.8 2.1 68.8 63.3 3.0 7.5 8.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 5.4 5.1 2.7 1.6 61.0 62.7 1.4 3.4 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 8.5 9.1 3.0 2.1 71.7 64.8 3.2 6.9 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 5.9 4.5 4.1 1.5 67.1 61.1 1.8 3.8 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 4.7 5.3 4.2 2.3 71.6 66.2 1.1 2.9 5.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 7.2 6.9 4.3 1.7 66.7 61.6 2.3 5.4 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 4.0 5.0 3.0 2.4 75.1 67.7 -0.6 2.1 4.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 6.6 7.9 4.4 1.9 67.1 62.8 2.8 6.1 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 6.3 6.0 4.2 1.5 66.6 61.2 2.7 4.2 5.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 6.7 6.6 4.7 1.7 66.3 61.5 2.0 4.9 6.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 8.9 8.6 4.7 2.1 68.0 64.3 4.1 7.5 8.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 4.5 5.6 3.2 1.9 70.1 64.0 2.3 3.9 5.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 6.9 7.7 3.2 2.2 73.8 67.8 1.5 4.9 6.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 5.9 8.6 4.1 1.9 71.6 63.9 3.3 5.1 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 6.9 6.4 2.5 1.8 65.1 63.4 3.3 4.4 6.4 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 4.5 5.3 3.9 2.4 73.8 67.7 -0.2 2.5 4.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 6.4 6.0 4.2 1.7 67.1 62.0 2.0 4.8 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------