***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.12.2016.-25.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 4.7 4.9 4.5 1.0 55.0 55.5 2.3 4.3 5.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 4.7 4.3 4.3 0.8 50.8 53.3 2.5 4.2 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 6.1 5.7 4.9 0.9 54.4 54.8 3.5 5.3 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 0.4 1.4 2.6 1.5 60.4 60.3 -1.1 -0.2 1.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 4.7 5.2 3.7 1.4 58.1 59.5 2.7 3.9 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 5.4 5.6 3.5 1.9 65.5 64.4 2.1 3.3 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 4.7 4.4 4.2 0.8 52.1 53.3 2.0 4.2 5.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 0.5 -0.4 3.8 1.7 63.5 62.2 -1.8 -0.8 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 5.7 5.2 4.5 1.4 58.0 58.8 3.2 5.0 7.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 6.6 5.3 4.2 1.6 61.6 60.6 2.9 4.1 5.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 5.4 5.5 4.1 1.5 58.2 60.0 2.5 4.7 6.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 4.9 5.2 3.9 1.6 61.1 61.4 2.6 3.9 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 4.8 5.6 4.0 1.6 61.0 61.4 2.7 3.9 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 6.0 6.5 5.0 1.2 56.8 56.9 4.4 5.0 7.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 3.6 3.6 3.7 1.3 55.7 58.2 2.9 3.2 4.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 5.5 6.4 3.7 1.6 59.6 60.9 3.3 4.4 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 4.2 3.6 4.1 0.7 49.2 52.4 2.1 3.6 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 4.0 3.1 4.3 1.7 62.9 61.3 1.6 2.6 3.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 5.2 4.7 4.5 0.8 51.6 53.8 2.7 4.6 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 4.4 2.8 3.3 2.0 65.4 64.5 -0.7 0.5 2.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 5.7 5.7 4.8 1.1 58.2 56.7 2.9 5.0 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 4.9 4.4 4.3 0.6 50.3 52.4 2.8 4.4 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 5.1 4.7 4.8 0.9 53.4 54.8 3.1 4.5 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 5.9 6.0 4.9 1.3 58.7 57.8 3.8 5.1 7.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 4.3 5.1 3.7 1.1 59.9 57.4 2.7 3.8 5.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 5.9 5.9 3.6 1.8 66.1 64.6 2.2 4.2 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 6.0 5.4 4.2 1.0 56.5 56.1 3.3 5.3 7.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 4.6 5.2 3.2 1.5 59.1 59.6 3.1 4.3 5.5 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 4.4 2.4 4.0 1.9 64.3 62.9 -0.7 0.6 2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 4.9 4.4 4.4 0.8 52.1 53.8 2.3 4.3 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------