***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.12.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.12.2016.-18.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 -2.8 -2.9 -3.1 -1.7 31.0 32.5 -2.7 -1.2 0.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 -3.3 -3.1 -3.1 -1.5 32.8 33.2 -3.0 -1.8 -0.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 0.3 -0.9 -2.6 -1.3 34.8 35.7 -1.0 -0.5 1.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 -4.6 -6.4 -4.0 -0.4 40.2 42.9 -6.7 -5.1 -4.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 85 15 100 -1.3 -2.3 -3.6 -0.9 40.1 40.0 -3.2 -1.5 -0.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 92 8 100 -1.9 -2.0 -5.1 0.3 51.2 50.8 -3.1 -2.0 -1.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 -3.5 -3.2 -3.2 -1.6 31.6 32.7 -3.2 -1.9 -0.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 93 7 100 -6.4 -6.7 -4.7 0.2 49.0 49.7 -7.7 -6.6 -4.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 -1.0 -1.8 -3.5 -0.7 40.6 40.3 -2.8 -1.3 -0.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 91 9 100 -1.7 -1.9 -4.3 0.0 48.1 47.6 -2.9 -1.8 -0.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 90 10 100 -1.5 -2.2 -3.8 -0.5 43.1 43.6 -2.7 -1.7 -0.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 91 9 100 -2.3 -2.6 -4.5 -0.3 44.2 45.1 -3.1 -2.5 -1.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 -1.0 -2.6 -4.6 -0.7 41.1 42.0 -2.9 -1.3 -0.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 -0.8 -1.2 -3.4 -0.4 44.2 43.2 -1.7 -1.1 0.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 -2.1 -2.5 -2.2 -0.2 45.2 45.3 -2.7 -2.5 -0.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 -1.0 -1.8 -4.3 -0.5 43.5 44.2 -2.1 -1.3 0.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 -1.4 -2.8 -3.0 -1.3 35.2 35.3 -3.0 -2.0 0.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 90 10 100 -2.7 -3.1 -4.5 0.2 48.0 49.0 -4.1 -2.9 -2.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 -0.8 -2.2 -3.0 -1.4 33.0 33.6 -2.2 -1.3 -0.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 90 10 100 -4.7 -6.2 -5.7 0.2 46.9 48.6 -7.3 -4.9 -4.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 -0.9 -2.9 -2.9 -1.2 35.4 36.6 -3.3 -1.4 -0.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 -3.1 -2.7 -2.9 -1.5 32.9 33.5 -2.7 -1.5 0.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 -0.8 -1.7 -2.9 -1.2 34.2 35.2 -2.0 -1.2 -0.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 88 12 100 -1.5 -2.4 -3.3 -0.3 43.4 44.8 -2.7 -1.7 -0.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 -2.9 -2.6 -3.3 -1.4 32.6 33.9 -2.5 -1.4 -0.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 -1.2 -1.8 -4.7 -0.5 42.6 43.3 -2.8 -1.4 -0.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 -3.5 -3.1 -3.3 -1.7 30.7 32.2 -3.0 -1.6 0.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 -2.3 -2.9 -3.5 -0.2 43.9 45.1 -4.0 -2.6 -1.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 90 10 100 -4.1 -4.4 -5.1 0.4 48.8 50.6 -5.5 -4.3 -3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 -3.1 -2.9 -3.0 -1.6 31.7 32.6 -2.7 -1.6 -0.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------