***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.12.2017.-07.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 38.2 51.4 50.1 122.1 67.7 64.3 24.2 32.8 50.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 45.6 51.0 48.6 130.7 71.2 66.8 26.5 35.3 48.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 48.4 55.8 48.1 118.1 63.3 61.8 39.4 45.1 56.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 50.0 54.5 52.8 112.1 60.2 57.6 36.3 46.7 57.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 55.0 59.2 52.6 111.3 61.8 58.7 44.2 53.1 60.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 47.8 51.7 51.0 113.2 64.7 59.8 34.5 45.9 52.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 51.9 59.0 48.4 133.0 72.3 67.9 25.9 41.0 53.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 78.0 86.3 64.4 126.8 72.2 66.5 52.9 62.4 75.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 38.0 45.2 53.7 112.7 63.3 59.9 29.5 34.8 45.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 53.4 58.0 59.8 117.3 67.2 62.5 37.4 51.0 57.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 87 13 100 47.9 49.9 52.6 112.2 62.6 59.0 43.1 46.4 52.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 49.7 59.2 55.4 120.5 67.6 63.6 34.4 46.5 57.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 55.5 60.1 55.3 113.2 64.9 59.8 38.3 53.6 61.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 66.7 74.1 63.0 119.8 68.4 63.6 50.7 64.3 71.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 51.8 56.2 50.8 115.2 62.7 58.4 32.0 46.8 63.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 52.0 55.4 51.3 110.4 62.1 58.0 35.3 49.5 57.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 50.9 57.6 51.4 141.7 77.2 69.9 29.4 36.1 42.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 47.6 50.5 66.4 124.1 71.9 66.1 33.1 46.6 48.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 41.8 54.1 48.9 127.7 69.5 65.6 24.0 36.4 52.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 63.2 80.6 98.0 149.7 84.8 76.5 46.0 53.8 62.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 47.9 52.5 51.5 115.0 64.7 61.0 32.0 45.2 53.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 48.0 53.4 54.8 142.8 77.1 70.2 26.2 35.4 40.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 40.9 50.7 50.5 123.2 67.3 64.0 24.5 38.3 49.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 52.1 57.3 56.9 116.7 65.7 61.8 45.9 50.6 57.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 45.3 51.3 56.1 118.7 66.0 62.9 29.5 40.8 51.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 46.3 56.0 55.5 122.8 68.3 64.4 34.3 43.3 55.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 46.9 61.8 53.8 124.0 68.8 65.1 25.2 43.5 59.6 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 47.5 48.3 48.7 110.1 60.4 56.4 29.9 45.5 50.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 84.0 91.8 78.3 136.2 78.6 71.6 59.8 71.2 80.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 43.2 50.3 47.8 126.9 68.4 65.7 25.6 39.3 49.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------