***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.01.2018.-07.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 2.6 7.9 10.6 101.2 60.6 49.7 2.5 5.6 11.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 2.3 8.7 9.6 105.2 61.0 49.3 2.5 5.6 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 4.2 13.2 10.6 104.0 64.4 50.2 5.6 8.5 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 5.1 12.9 12.2 103.0 63.4 49.7 4.3 8.8 13.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 13.2 13.5 12.0 100.7 60.2 49.8 6.1 9.7 16.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 8.8 11.3 11.5 97.8 60.0 49.2 4.3 7.3 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 3.4 9.5 9.1 101.4 59.7 49.0 3.5 6.8 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 16.6 18.7 13.3 105.8 61.8 50.2 9.3 13.5 20.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 10.6 10.3 12.7 103.2 59.9 50.2 4.5 9.1 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 12.7 13.1 13.4 104.3 59.9 49.9 2.9 11.8 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 10.7 11.7 11.7 99.4 59.2 48.9 4.0 9.1 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 11.5 13.1 11.8 103.2 62.0 49.7 2.9 8.8 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 12.3 14.7 12.5 101.7 59.2 49.3 3.7 9.6 16.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 5.3 17.3 12.9 100.6 60.0 48.6 5.6 11.8 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 1.4 12.5 12.8 109.9 68.3 50.2 1.0 3.5 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 10.2 11.2 11.7 99.2 58.8 48.5 4.1 6.9 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 2.3 7.3 8.9 101.3 61.3 48.7 3.5 4.9 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 4.7 12.3 14.2 108.0 62.2 50.3 2.6 9.3 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 4.3 9.8 10.0 106.3 62.2 49.4 3.3 8.4 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 3.9 15.2 18.0 112.7 65.3 52.2 2.6 7.0 16.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 4.7 9.8 11.6 103.1 61.2 50.6 4.6 8.6 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 2.2 8.6 9.9 106.1 63.1 48.5 1.6 5.0 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 4.3 10.8 10.5 103.3 62.0 49.4 3.3 8.3 11.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 6.6 17.0 12.4 103.7 61.7 49.6 4.6 13.4 17.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 4.0 11.9 11.9 99.6 59.6 49.1 4.5 7.3 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.5 12.1 11.7 103.7 61.8 49.9 3.4 6.9 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 3.3 8.9 11.1 100.4 60.1 49.4 4.0 6.0 9.5 29 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 2.3 15.1 12.1 105.5 65.1 49.9 1.7 5.6 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 17.1 18.6 15.6 111.3 63.9 51.5 5.7 13.8 19.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 2.6 8.7 9.9 105.8 62.3 49.8 4.0 6.1 9.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------