***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.12.2017.-31.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 4.3 9.5 9.1 85.7 52.8 47.3 3.8 8.1 12.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 4.4 8.9 8.6 92.2 54.8 48.8 5.3 8.3 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 14.4 11.6 8.7 84.4 51.9 46.7 6.5 11.0 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 12.2 11.3 9.8 84.2 53.6 48.1 4.5 10.4 13.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 12.1 10.1 10.6 90.7 54.8 49.3 6.6 9.6 17.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.2 10.8 10.5 97.7 61.6 51.4 4.5 7.6 11.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 11.6 11.2 8.2 87.8 53.4 47.4 4.5 8.6 16.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 14.8 17.0 11.6 96.7 58.6 50.6 6.4 12.1 20.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 8.2 7.3 11.2 91.7 54.4 48.8 2.7 5.7 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 10.1 10.1 11.9 96.2 57.5 50.3 5.0 7.4 11.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 11.1 9.9 10.2 92.0 57.2 50.2 4.8 8.6 13.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 9.6 8.5 10.0 93.1 56.8 50.3 3.9 7.7 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 9.6 11.5 11.1 96.6 58.7 52.1 3.6 6.2 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 7.2 18.1 12.0 92.0 55.3 49.0 7.1 14.7 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 9.5 8.2 9.4 84.0 57.0 48.4 2.8 6.3 11.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 9.2 11.0 10.0 90.2 57.2 49.8 3.9 7.3 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 10.9 8.6 8.6 92.9 55.6 47.9 6.6 7.7 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 9.9 9.0 12.9 97.8 56.0 50.2 5.1 7.9 11.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 5.1 11.7 8.9 93.0 56.3 49.3 4.7 9.9 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 11.9 11.1 16.3 100.9 59.3 50.9 5.7 9.3 15.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 11.2 10.2 10.0 87.0 52.6 47.5 6.6 9.9 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 4.9 12.6 9.6 99.2 58.5 49.6 3.9 9.3 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 10.2 9.4 9.3 91.4 57.3 49.4 5.1 8.0 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 12.2 9.8 11.0 90.8 53.7 48.3 7.7 9.1 16.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 14.0 13.7 10.7 87.8 53.6 48.1 7.1 11.9 17.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 8.3 10.3 9.8 94.1 59.0 51.0 3.0 6.7 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 13.6 10.6 10.1 89.5 54.2 48.1 3.8 10.4 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 8.1 6.9 9.3 85.3 56.2 48.8 3.9 5.4 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 16.1 14.7 14.2 99.3 57.6 50.5 10.0 12.8 18.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 4.4 9.6 8.5 89.7 54.5 48.4 4.9 8.4 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------