***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.12.2017.-24.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 8.1 10.1 13.5 129.2 69.7 60.4 3.0 7.1 9.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 8.3 7.9 10.5 107.5 64.0 55.4 4.6 7.2 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 10.3 16.3 13.7 133.1 70.2 61.6 5.3 7.9 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 12.6 16.2 15.5 132.3 71.0 60.8 6.0 11.3 14.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 12.3 16.2 14.9 125.1 68.0 59.9 8.3 10.3 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 17.7 17.4 15.0 122.5 70.5 60.7 8.1 13.4 15.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 8.7 10.0 10.8 113.6 66.0 57.0 4.7 7.7 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 17.3 18.6 16.9 130.1 69.6 61.6 11.7 15.9 18.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 8.6 9.8 15.3 126.9 70.4 61.0 5.9 8.0 9.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 15.1 14.9 16.7 133.6 71.8 62.9 6.1 11.2 14.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 12.1 17.2 16.4 136.2 72.3 63.7 6.3 10.8 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 11.1 14.5 15.6 127.4 69.4 60.9 8.2 9.7 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 18.4 22.5 17.0 134.6 73.0 63.6 8.6 10.6 17.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 13.0 16.6 16.7 125.1 68.9 60.7 7.2 11.6 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 10.7 18.5 14.4 136.1 72.6 61.1 1.9 7.1 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 11.8 15.1 14.8 122.9 69.2 59.7 7.2 10.1 14.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 8.4 9.5 9.9 105.9 62.7 54.7 3.9 7.2 9.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 9.6 11.0 16.2 121.1 67.3 60.0 4.9 8.1 10.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 8.4 9.1 11.3 112.4 64.8 56.9 4.4 7.4 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 13.9 16.4 21.4 126.0 69.0 62.8 5.0 13.1 16.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 8.6 12.2 14.7 129.3 70.9 61.1 6.0 7.3 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 7.6 7.3 10.4 104.7 63.7 54.9 3.9 6.6 7.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 7.4 8.3 12.9 121.8 67.2 59.4 3.8 6.0 8.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 9.3 13.4 15.8 127.5 70.2 61.2 5.6 7.9 13.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 10.6 17.4 15.4 127.6 69.3 60.1 4.5 8.5 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 13.2 14.1 14.8 117.4 65.7 58.7 9.3 11.6 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 11.3 15.1 14.2 127.2 69.3 60.2 4.7 9.6 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 10.6 18.2 14.5 132.3 71.1 60.6 3.9 7.9 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 16.9 21.5 18.5 125.8 68.7 62.5 8.8 15.5 20.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 8.6 9.1 11.3 115.6 66.5 57.7 4.6 7.9 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------