***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.12.2017.-17.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 21 79 100 9.3 9.8 17.0 177.6 76.1 74.6 3.5 5.3 7.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 12.4 22.8 19.9 222.1 85.8 79.9 3.5 7.8 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 12.9 13.6 15.1 152.1 71.2 69.9 6.3 7.8 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 90 10 100 10.2 14.3 15.3 129.0 67.7 65.1 7.2 9.5 14.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 88 12 100 10.3 15.6 15.1 128.8 67.1 63.9 8.6 9.3 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 8.5 11.0 14.0 136.2 70.5 66.0 3.1 7.0 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 14.6 23.4 20.3 235.3 86.8 81.1 3.3 7.9 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 24.1 26.8 22.6 175.7 76.5 71.9 14.8 18.8 23.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 8.8 9.9 14.5 130.6 67.6 64.7 5.8 8.1 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 87 13 100 13.4 17.3 17.7 134.3 68.4 65.1 6.4 12.6 17.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 12.5 13.1 14.3 119.4 65.0 61.1 8.3 11.8 13.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 43 57 100 17.1 18.8 18.0 157.4 74.1 69.6 7.1 13.2 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 10.9 14.1 14.8 118.2 63.7 59.6 6.3 9.1 14.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 19.3 22.3 21.4 160.4 75.6 70.3 9.8 13.6 18.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 88 12 100 7.0 12.5 14.1 133.7 70.7 67.2 1.0 4.9 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 10.8 14.5 14.8 128.3 66.9 63.1 5.1 8.8 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 16 84 100 14.6 22.7 23.9 271.1 89.3 83.6 4.3 9.1 10.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 15.6 17.8 23.1 167.1 78.5 71.6 6.3 12.5 15.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 22 78 100 14.7 25.6 18.7 201.7 83.7 77.5 4.8 7.7 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 17.0 40.1 42.3 274.9 90.9 83.9 8.6 12.6 16.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 44 56 100 10.3 10.5 15.1 142.6 70.7 68.2 5.1 7.5 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 15 85 100 15.6 18.8 24.9 264.4 89.0 83.6 5.7 6.6 12.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 15.0 19.9 17.8 177.0 79.3 73.9 5.3 7.5 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 46 54 100 16.7 17.7 17.8 143.8 72.3 67.6 5.5 12.7 15.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 9.7 10.9 18.2 163.3 75.0 71.8 2.7 5.4 9.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 14.4 17.9 19.2 176.5 80.0 75.2 6.7 9.3 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 12.9 16.4 18.4 186.1 78.9 75.8 3.1 5.5 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 90 10 100 7.5 13.5 12.8 117.0 66.0 63.0 2.9 6.2 13.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 28.2 33.3 30.0 214.0 85.1 76.9 14.3 19.8 27.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 18 82 100 15.4 17.7 18.1 200.3 82.0 77.4 3.2 8.1 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------