***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.12.2017.-07.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 5.3 5.7 5.7 2.3 76.1 74.6 2.9 4.0 4.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 5.5 5.9 5.6 2.2 74.9 72.7 2.6 3.8 4.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 7.1 7.6 6.1 2.3 76.8 74.0 4.1 5.3 6.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 1.8 2.2 3.0 2.0 73.1 71.6 -0.7 0.5 1.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 6.4 6.7 4.4 2.2 75.4 73.9 3.7 4.6 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 5.8 6.5 3.4 1.7 73.2 69.4 3.0 4.6 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 5.2 5.7 5.5 2.2 75.4 73.5 2.2 3.6 4.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 45 55 100 0.3 0.3 3.5 1.5 69.3 67.0 -1.6 -0.1 0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 7.2 7.6 5.2 2.1 74.6 73.1 4.6 5.6 6.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 6.0 6.4 4.3 1.8 71.5 69.6 4.0 4.8 5.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 6.7 7.5 4.6 2.2 75.8 73.7 3.9 4.8 6.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 6.8 7.4 4.0 1.8 72.7 70.3 4.3 5.2 6.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 6.8 7.2 4.2 2.0 76.0 72.5 4.2 5.1 5.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 7.2 7.6 5.4 1.8 72.4 68.5 4.5 5.7 6.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 5.1 5.6 4.0 1.8 71.4 69.8 2.5 4.3 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 7.3 8.0 4.1 2.2 76.0 73.5 4.6 5.7 6.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 4.9 5.1 5.3 2.0 73.9 70.7 2.2 3.5 4.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 3.8 4.0 4.2 1.6 68.7 67.4 2.3 2.8 3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 6.0 6.5 5.7 2.2 74.6 72.5 3.2 4.2 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 2.3 3.4 2.3 1.0 62.4 61.6 1.0 2.0 3.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 6.6 7.0 5.7 2.2 75.9 73.9 4.1 5.2 6.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 5.6 5.6 5.3 1.9 73.2 69.8 2.8 4.1 5.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 5.5 5.9 6.0 2.2 74.2 71.9 3.1 4.2 5.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 7.4 7.8 5.4 1.9 71.9 70.0 4.5 5.5 6.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 5.4 5.5 4.4 2.1 75.3 72.8 2.7 4.1 5.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 45 55 100 5.6 5.8 3.4 1.6 70.4 68.8 3.8 4.8 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 6.7 7.4 5.2 2.2 75.6 73.7 4.0 5.0 6.6 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 6.2 6.7 3.5 1.9 72.1 70.4 3.4 5.1 5.7 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 2.3 3.5 3.4 1.3 65.4 64.1 0.6 2.1 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 5.6 5.9 5.7 2.3 75.9 73.8 2.7 3.9 4.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------