***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.01.2018.-07.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 4.4 5.2 4.2 1.2 57.2 58.1 0.5 3.3 6.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 4.5 4.3 4.1 1.2 54.6 57.6 0.4 3.6 5.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 6.8 6.6 4.6 1.2 56.8 58.0 1.5 6.1 7.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 1.7 2.1 1.5 0.9 56.1 56.5 -2.3 1.0 3.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 5.3 5.8 2.6 0.9 55.8 56.2 1.7 4.5 7.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 5.3 4.9 2.2 0.7 55.2 53.7 2.1 4.3 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 4.4 3.9 4.2 1.3 56.1 58.2 -0.1 3.4 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -0.7 -0.6 2.5 0.7 54.4 54.3 -2.6 -1.4 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 7.1 7.3 3.5 0.9 55.8 56.1 2.4 6.5 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 5.5 5.9 3.1 0.8 55.3 55.1 2.3 4.8 7.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 5.6 5.6 2.6 0.8 56.4 56.0 1.8 4.8 7.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 6.8 6.8 2.6 0.7 54.5 55.1 2.3 6.1 7.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 1.6 5.6 2.3 0.8 56.1 55.3 2.5 4.7 7.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 5.9 6.8 4.2 1.0 57.5 55.6 2.2 4.9 9.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 4.8 4.2 2.3 1.0 54.2 56.7 1.3 3.8 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 6.2 6.1 2.3 0.8 56.6 55.9 3.0 5.4 7.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 4.0 3.9 4.2 1.1 55.7 57.3 -0.1 2.9 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 3.4 3.1 3.4 0.8 55.1 54.6 1.4 2.9 3.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 5.2 5.2 4.3 1.2 54.8 57.5 0.0 4.1 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 2.7 2.1 1.8 0.6 51.5 52.9 -0.9 1.8 4.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 6.8 6.5 4.0 1.0 56.1 56.8 1.9 6.1 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 4.6 4.3 4.2 1.1 54.5 56.6 0.6 3.5 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 5.1 5.1 4.7 1.2 56.4 57.1 0.7 4.3 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 6.9 7.9 4.1 1.0 57.7 55.9 2.3 6.1 8.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 5.0 5.3 2.7 1.0 56.3 56.7 1.1 4.3 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 5.0 5.8 2.2 0.7 55.7 54.7 2.0 4.3 6.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 6.6 7.0 3.8 1.1 57.5 57.6 1.5 5.8 7.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 5.4 4.6 1.8 0.8 54.6 55.9 0.9 4.2 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 3.3 3.1 2.8 0.6 53.3 53.5 0.8 2.5 4.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 4.8 4.7 4.2 1.2 55.4 58.1 0.2 3.8 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------