***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.12.2017.-17.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 7.9 11.2 10.1 6.3 97.2 95.8 2.5 4.0 6.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 7.2 10.8 9.8 5.9 96.5 94.8 1.9 3.7 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 9.0 12.8 10.6 6.4 96.5 95.3 3.0 5.4 6.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 2 98 100 3.1 6.9 6.8 5.3 92.4 91.3 -1.1 -0.3 1.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 8.4 11.8 9.2 6.5 97.2 96.1 3.0 4.9 7.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 7.7 10.5 7.0 5.2 92.7 92.1 2.5 4.0 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 7.0 10.5 9.6 5.9 96.8 95.3 1.7 3.5 4.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 4 96 100 1.9 2.6 6.8 4.6 87.5 86.6 -1.5 0.1 1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 9.3 12.4 9.8 6.3 96.9 95.5 3.1 5.5 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 1 99 100 8.8 9.8 8.2 5.5 91.6 90.8 2.8 4.9 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 8.8 12.2 9.5 6.4 96.1 95.1 3.1 5.2 7.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 9.1 11.9 7.8 5.3 93.6 92.2 2.8 5.1 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 8.6 11.3 9.1 6.0 94.6 93.8 3.4 5.1 7.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 1 99 100 8.8 12.0 9.5 5.7 92.3 90.3 3.2 5.0 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 3 97 100 6.0 7.4 7.1 3.7 87.2 85.9 3.4 4.5 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 9.0 12.9 8.9 6.3 95.9 95.3 3.8 5.4 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 1 99 100 6.2 8.8 9.0 5.4 95.1 93.5 1.7 3.5 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 2 98 100 4.9 7.0 7.6 5.2 89.5 88.6 1.7 3.1 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 7.7 11.7 10.0 6.0 96.0 94.7 2.5 4.0 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 10 90 100 5.6 6.1 5.1 3.7 79.4 79.3 0.8 2.6 4.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 8.8 11.8 10.5 6.4 97.0 95.6 3.4 5.6 7.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 1 99 100 7.0 9.2 9.2 5.3 93.6 92.6 2.3 3.6 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 7.7 10.1 10.1 6.0 96.1 94.3 3.0 4.2 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 1 99 100 8.9 11.1 9.7 5.9 93.1 91.8 3.6 5.6 6.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 7.3 8.9 9.1 6.0 96.4 94.7 2.9 4.2 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 1 99 100 7.8 10.0 6.7 4.4 92.4 90.3 3.0 4.3 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 8.6 11.8 9.6 6.0 96.8 95.2 3.1 5.3 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 2 98 100 6.8 11.3 7.2 4.8 90.2 88.7 3.6 4.5 6.1 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 7 93 100 4.9 5.9 6.5 4.4 84.6 83.9 0.4 2.3 3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 7.5 10.7 10.0 6.1 96.8 95.5 2.1 4.1 4.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------