***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.12.2017.-07.01.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 17 83 100 -0.4 0.2 0.4 2.9 83.0 80.3 -3.1 -1.7 -0.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 -0.9 -0.3 0.0 2.7 82.0 78.7 -3.2 -1.8 -1.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 21 79 100 1.0 1.6 0.3 2.8 83.3 80.4 -1.3 -0.1 0.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 -4.0 -3.4 -2.6 2.5 78.6 75.9 -6.8 -5.7 -4.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 20 80 100 -1.0 -0.5 -1.6 3.0 82.4 79.4 -3.2 -2.2 -1.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 -1.8 -1.4 -4.3 2.2 77.0 73.5 -4.0 -2.8 -1.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 -0.8 -0.4 0.1 2.7 81.7 78.9 -3.1 -1.9 -1.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 -5.6 -5.1 -3.8 2.4 77.6 74.4 -8.1 -6.9 -6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 -0.1 0.5 -1.5 2.8 81.0 78.2 -2.6 -1.5 -0.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 -1.0 -0.6 -3.0 2.6 79.9 76.4 -3.2 -2.0 -0.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 17 83 100 -1.0 -0.6 -2.2 2.9 82.4 79.1 -3.8 -2.2 -0.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 -1.6 -1.2 -2.9 2.8 80.8 77.6 -3.7 -2.9 -1.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 -0.7 -0.3 -3.1 2.7 81.4 77.8 -3.6 -2.2 -1.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 20 80 100 -0.4 -0.2 -2.0 2.5 79.7 75.4 -2.8 -1.1 -0.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 -0.8 -0.1 -1.6 2.2 78.1 75.2 -3.6 -2.6 -1.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 23 77 100 -0.4 0.1 -2.9 2.8 81.3 78.0 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 -1.1 -0.6 -0.1 2.5 79.8 76.0 -3.1 -2.1 -1.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 -2.5 -2.2 -3.6 2.5 79.6 75.4 -5.9 -3.5 -2.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 -0.8 -0.4 -0.1 2.6 82.0 78.6 -3.2 -1.7 -1.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 -4.9 -4.2 -4.8 2.2 78.0 73.9 -7.9 -6.4 -4.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 18 82 100 -0.2 0.1 -0.3 2.9 83.0 80.2 -3.0 -1.4 -0.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 -1.3 -0.8 -0.2 2.4 79.6 75.8 -3.2 -2.1 -1.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 -1.1 -0.7 -0.4 2.5 81.2 77.5 -3.6 -2.0 -1.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 -1.1 -0.9 -2.0 2.7 81.1 77.1 -3.7 -1.8 -1.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 19 81 100 -0.7 -0.1 -0.7 2.8 82.1 78.8 -2.8 -1.9 -1.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 -1.3 -0.8 -3.5 2.4 78.6 74.5 -3.1 -2.3 -1.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 18 82 100 0.0 0.4 0.0 2.9 82.9 79.6 -2.8 -1.0 -0.1 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 -2.3 -1.9 -2.5 2.5 78.3 75.6 -4.5 -3.3 -2.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 -3.3 -3.1 -4.4 2.3 77.5 73.4 -5.7 -4.2 -3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 -0.5 0.2 0.2 2.8 83.1 79.8 -3.1 -1.2 -0.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------