***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 07.12.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.12.2017.-17.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 1.6 4.6 5.3 7.0 100.0 98.1 -1.7 -1.0 0.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 1.4 3.9 4.6 6.7 98.4 97.1 -2.3 -1.4 0.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 2.7 5.0 5.4 7.0 100.0 98.3 -0.6 0.1 1.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 1 99 100 -2.2 0.6 1.3 5.1 95.3 92.7 -6.8 -5.8 -3.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 0.5 3.7 4.1 7.1 99.8 98.2 -2.5 -1.8 -0.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 4 96 100 -0.1 1.7 -0.2 5.2 93.9 90.8 -3.3 -2.6 -0.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 1.5 4.2 4.8 6.9 99.4 97.4 -2.7 -1.4 -0.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 1 99 100 -3.9 -2.8 1.1 6.2 96.7 94.9 -7.2 -6.3 -4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 0.9 4.1 3.4 6.5 99.5 97.1 -1.9 -1.3 0.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 1 99 100 0.5 4.1 2.1 6.4 98.9 97.0 -2.1 -1.6 -0.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 0.5 4.1 3.3 6.8 99.6 97.4 -2.5 -1.3 0.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 -0.3 2.7 2.6 6.9 99.3 97.6 -3.4 -2.7 -0.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 0.7 3.6 2.4 6.6 99.1 96.4 -2.6 -1.3 -0.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 0.8 4.3 3.6 6.8 98.6 97.3 -1.4 -0.7 0.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 6 94 100 0.5 1.5 1.1 3.3 86.7 84.7 -2.6 -1.5 0.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 1.4 5.2 2.4 6.4 99.4 96.6 -2.6 -0.7 0.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 1.1 3.6 4.2 6.4 98.1 96.5 -2.7 -1.7 -0.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 1 99 100 -0.7 2.2 2.3 7.1 99.9 98.0 -4.3 -2.8 -1.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 0.9 3.8 4.6 6.6 98.3 97.2 -2.0 -1.1 -0.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 1 99 100 -3.3 1.3 1.2 7.2 99.8 97.7 -6.5 -5.1 -4.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 1.3 4.0 5.0 7.0 99.9 98.1 -2.1 -1.4 0.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 0.9 3.4 4.3 6.3 97.9 96.7 -2.0 -1.4 -0.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 0.8 3.6 4.4 6.3 98.8 97.3 -1.8 -0.9 -0.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 1 99 100 0.2 4.4 3.9 7.1 99.8 97.9 -2.2 -1.3 -0.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 1.2 4.6 4.5 6.6 99.4 97.3 -2.1 -1.5 0.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 0.4 3.7 1.7 6.0 98.1 94.9 -2.5 -1.3 -0.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 1.8 6.7 5.2 7.2 99.8 98.0 -2.9 -0.9 0.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 2 98 100 0.1 1.0 1.3 4.8 93.2 90.8 -3.9 -2.3 -1.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 2 98 100 -1.8 1.2 1.2 6.8 99.6 96.9 -5.0 -4.2 -3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 1.6 4.1 5.0 6.8 99.2 97.6 -2.0 -1.0 0.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------