***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.12.2018.-06.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 23.8 42.5 49.9 110.5 60.9 56.2 24.6 36.9 50.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 23.5 45.4 44.5 112.6 60.9 55.2 26.5 35.1 46.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 49.9 50.7 48.7 109.2 61.8 56.4 41.0 44.7 56.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 35.7 53.9 54.2 109.2 62.4 56.8 36.7 45.2 57.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 61.6 57.2 55.9 111.4 62.7 59.3 44.6 52.2 59.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 46.3 49.9 50.9 107.9 62.9 55.8 34.5 43.6 50.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 25.9 50.6 44.1 113.0 62.1 54.8 25.8 40.8 53.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 68.7 67.2 57.5 106.1 59.9 55.2 55.2 62.0 73.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 49.9 39.6 56.1 110.4 61.6 58.4 29.7 35.2 40.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 38.9 55.2 58.0 107.5 60.1 56.5 39.1 48.7 56.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 37.9 47.9 54.8 109.9 61.4 57.5 41.4 46.2 49.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 50.4 54.9 52.9 108.1 62.1 56.1 34.4 45.8 56.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 53.1 56.5 55.5 109.7 65.4 57.9 39.9 50.1 57.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 48.5 69.4 58.9 107.0 62.7 55.6 51.4 63.5 72.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 32.3 55.0 47.6 103.2 58.3 52.3 32.0 46.8 62.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 58.2 56.5 53.5 110.2 63.6 57.7 35.2 44.4 57.3 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 26.4 43.0 44.4 117.0 64.5 56.5 29.4 36.0 43.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 49.5 48.1 59.8 105.7 60.7 56.1 35.4 47.3 50.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 43.2 50.9 45.8 112.1 61.4 56.0 24.1 35.2 54.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 57.4 60.9 71.7 103.1 57.0 54.3 46.0 53.8 65.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 55.1 50.0 53.6 110.5 61.7 58.4 33.1 45.3 51.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 40.7 47.0 46.9 118.2 66.2 58.3 26.2 36.9 46.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 41.8 49.9 48.8 111.3 62.9 56.9 26.2 37.7 52.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 53.3 55.3 55.5 106.6 61.9 56.2 46.4 51.1 56.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 61.8 49.7 57.3 112.5 63.5 58.0 31.1 42.4 51.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 49.1 52.6 52.4 107.8 62.0 55.6 34.3 45.1 55.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 29.6 59.0 53.5 112.8 63.0 56.9 27.2 43.5 61.2 29 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 33.3 47.2 49.6 106.7 59.8 54.7 30.4 43.2 50.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 79.3 77.7 63.3 104.1 58.8 55.3 60.5 75.5 82.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 26.0 47.7 45.4 110.9 59.7 54.9 25.5 39.1 48.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------