***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.12.2018.-06.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 2.3 8.1 11.0 98.5 59.3 46.3 1.8 5.6 10.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 2.3 9.5 9.9 102.4 65.5 46.8 2.1 5.6 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 3.9 13.3 10.8 98.9 61.6 46.9 5.6 8.2 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 7.1 14.0 12.0 97.0 61.1 48.5 5.8 11.4 15.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 7.1 13.9 11.7 94.6 58.1 48.1 7.1 12.4 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 9.9 11.4 10.6 92.9 56.0 48.0 5.1 8.3 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 3.8 14.6 10.0 106.1 65.8 47.7 2.7 7.9 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 8.5 17.4 12.8 98.6 59.5 49.1 9.2 14.3 22.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 5.2 10.8 12.4 96.4 57.0 47.8 6.9 9.4 12.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 6.1 13.1 12.8 96.4 57.8 48.4 4.7 11.7 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 5.5 11.5 11.4 94.9 57.5 48.5 5.3 9.9 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 4.9 13.1 11.4 97.9 58.8 48.7 5.4 9.9 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 5.9 12.6 11.1 92.2 53.8 47.3 6.1 10.8 16.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 6.2 18.5 13.3 99.9 62.5 47.8 6.6 13.9 18.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 9.9 12.5 11.7 98.6 63.5 49.9 1.6 6.6 13.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 4.2 10.7 11.0 93.9 56.5 48.3 5.2 8.2 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 2.4 12.7 10.1 109.6 65.1 48.0 3.7 4.6 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 5.1 11.0 13.6 98.7 58.0 48.6 5.1 9.8 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 4.2 11.5 10.2 101.9 64.7 47.2 2.5 8.4 11.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 6.0 12.8 16.8 100.8 59.7 49.3 4.8 10.3 17.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 4.4 11.2 11.9 99.0 59.1 47.6 4.7 8.7 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 2.2 10.0 10.4 106.6 64.3 48.1 1.8 5.0 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 4.6 11.5 11.1 104.3 63.2 48.6 2.3 8.4 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 7.3 17.3 12.7 100.4 61.4 48.4 5.7 16.5 17.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 4.4 12.1 12.6 100.6 60.4 47.8 4.5 8.8 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 3.8 8.2 11.1 98.0 56.9 47.6 3.9 7.4 13.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 3.0 9.0 11.7 99.5 60.7 47.0 4.1 5.9 10.6 29 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 5.3 13.9 11.2 95.1 61.4 48.7 2.7 10.9 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 8.0 15.9 14.4 98.7 59.0 48.4 8.1 14.4 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 2.8 8.9 10.0 99.0 63.6 46.2 2.9 6.1 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------