***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.12.2018.-30.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9.0 7.1 11.0 95.7 54.8 49.1 3.8 6.4 12.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 9.4 12.3 9.7 90.0 57.4 48.7 4.4 6.7 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 6.0 13.0 10.7 93.7 54.5 48.2 6.6 11.2 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 5.0 11.3 11.0 88.3 54.1 45.3 5.4 10.6 14.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 5.5 12.3 11.8 96.4 57.2 47.0 7.1 9.9 14.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 4.0 9.8 11.2 96.8 59.0 47.6 3.5 7.6 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 11.8 11.3 9.5 88.9 55.9 48.2 3.8 9.4 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 8.2 15.9 12.9 99.1 58.9 47.9 7.9 12.9 19.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 2.5 8.2 12.5 98.6 57.7 47.7 3.2 4.9 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 3.6 9.7 13.1 100.3 57.8 47.8 4.2 6.8 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 4.3 10.0 11.9 100.5 59.1 47.2 5.7 9.0 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 4.3 9.2 11.9 101.3 60.7 47.8 4.0 7.9 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 3.3 9.7 12.1 100.6 59.7 48.0 3.7 6.9 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 6.2 16.4 13.5 96.7 57.1 48.1 6.5 11.9 19.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 3.0 8.2 9.7 79.6 55.3 43.9 1.1 7.0 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 3.2 10.6 11.6 99.9 59.0 47.2 3.2 7.3 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 9.9 9.0 9.4 90.4 56.3 48.6 5.2 7.8 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 3.4 9.2 13.8 100.6 59.2 48.0 5.3 7.8 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 12.6 11.7 10.0 91.1 56.6 48.8 4.3 8.9 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 6.0 12.3 16.5 95.1 57.7 48.2 5.0 11.1 15.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 5.3 10.1 11.5 94.5 55.2 47.5 5.6 9.5 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 11.2 12.0 10.4 96.6 57.5 49.9 4.9 9.3 15.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 3.6 8.0 10.8 91.9 54.1 48.4 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 3.8 11.4 12.8 99.3 58.3 48.4 5.4 9.1 13.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 5.7 12.4 11.9 93.0 53.0 47.5 6.5 10.3 17.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 4.4 11.1 11.6 97.3 57.0 47.9 3.0 9.1 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 11.7 11.9 11.8 97.3 54.8 49.2 3.8 7.7 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 2.7 7.3 10.3 89.0 56.8 45.0 3.8 6.6 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 8.0 16.5 14.7 98.9 58.5 48.0 7.9 14.0 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 10.9 12.6 10.0 91.4 56.4 48.8 4.9 7.8 17.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------