***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.12.2018.-23.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9.0 10.7 12.8 108.9 64.1 55.6 4.6 7.9 11.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 7.6 8.3 12.4 121.6 66.2 58.9 3.3 6.2 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 10.5 12.5 12.6 110.0 62.0 56.6 4.7 8.1 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 13.8 13.8 13.5 104.5 62.4 54.2 7.3 12.9 14.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 13.5 15.0 12.8 100.0 59.4 52.7 9.0 12.0 16.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 14.9 14.0 12.9 102.9 55.9 52.6 7.4 13.6 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 7.1 11.3 12.7 127.0 69.4 60.2 4.1 5.4 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 15.6 16.4 13.3 95.4 57.0 51.6 13.3 14.6 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 9.1 9.3 13.2 101.8 59.2 54.1 6.3 8.4 10.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 13.1 13.5 12.5 94.1 55.9 51.3 7.1 12.3 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 11.4 11.9 13.2 100.1 58.6 52.3 8.4 10.1 13.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 10.5 9.8 13.2 100.7 59.1 52.9 7.6 9.3 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 14.5 15.1 13.7 105.3 59.0 53.9 9.4 12.5 18.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 12.8 14.9 14.3 104.2 60.0 54.5 7.5 11.7 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 11.2 15.5 12.3 102.8 63.7 53.7 3.2 8.7 17.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 12.6 14.1 13.3 104.0 59.1 53.3 6.7 10.6 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 9.4 12.9 13.8 142.3 72.8 63.3 3.6 7.9 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 9.7 9.7 12.9 92.1 56.2 51.3 5.3 8.9 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 6.6 9.6 12.5 118.3 65.4 58.0 2.8 5.2 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 14.1 15.5 17.5 96.3 58.6 53.3 7.1 13.0 18.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 10.1 10.6 13.3 106.1 63.2 55.3 6.5 9.2 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 6.7 11.7 14.1 139.5 71.3 62.7 3.1 5.1 9.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 7.4 8.3 13.0 115.3 65.2 57.3 2.9 5.9 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 9.9 11.3 12.9 98.0 58.4 53.1 6.9 8.5 12.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 10.3 15.2 13.8 106.7 63.6 55.3 4.4 8.2 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 13.8 15.6 13.5 102.7 57.8 53.1 5.6 12.4 17.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 10.5 14.0 14.0 114.1 65.3 57.6 4.2 9.1 14.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 11.9 12.5 12.4 100.9 61.2 52.6 4.3 9.9 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 18.0 20.5 14.6 95.7 57.7 52.9 11.8 16.1 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 7.0 8.5 12.4 117.4 63.7 58.2 3.3 6.4 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------