***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.12.2018.-16.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 6.6 9.0 15.0 140.9 72.9 65.1 3.4 5.1 8.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 10.3 12.6 12.6 140.4 72.9 63.1 2.3 5.1 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 9.5 12.0 14.5 135.8 70.1 64.4 4.9 7.8 11.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 14.4 16.7 17.8 148.6 74.7 68.2 7.1 9.8 15.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 14.5 17.5 19.6 153.0 76.1 70.7 8.3 9.2 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 9.2 11.4 16.2 139.0 72.8 68.6 3.7 5.0 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 8.9 14.9 11.9 133.2 72.2 61.6 3.5 7.0 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 46 54 100 22.3 25.3 18.5 128.7 70.4 66.4 12.3 17.8 24.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 9.4 13.9 18.0 146.3 75.9 68.4 6.1 8.6 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 14.3 17.8 19.5 136.8 73.0 67.2 8.3 13.6 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 43 57 100 14.1 15.9 18.4 142.8 73.4 68.6 7.7 10.9 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 15.9 16.6 16.4 131.5 70.4 66.8 8.8 13.1 16.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 13.2 14.3 18.7 137.1 70.8 68.4 7.1 8.9 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 16.8 21.0 17.8 126.9 67.9 62.8 9.6 14.8 20.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 46 54 100 13.8 13.3 13.9 137.5 71.5 65.6 2.3 6.8 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 15.2 18.2 17.6 142.1 73.5 68.4 5.5 8.0 11.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 8.1 10.5 11.1 128.5 70.7 59.4 3.7 6.4 9.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 13.1 16.5 19.5 129.4 70.2 65.1 6.5 12.1 15.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 13.9 13.9 13.1 140.9 72.6 64.1 3.7 7.5 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 46 54 100 14.1 15.0 20.8 118.6 70.6 65.0 8.1 10.1 13.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 11.0 12.0 16.9 143.7 74.5 67.3 5.7 7.8 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 9.8 16.2 12.0 132.9 71.1 61.7 4.7 7.3 13.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 14.7 14.2 13.7 137.1 71.0 64.2 6.0 7.8 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 13.3 20.0 17.1 128.0 67.9 63.3 6.6 11.4 19.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 10.0 11.9 18.9 150.0 75.0 68.6 3.8 6.2 7.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 42 58 100 11.9 11.5 16.2 132.5 70.1 66.4 8.2 9.8 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 44 56 100 11.5 11.9 16.0 141.5 72.7 65.5 2.8 5.6 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 43 57 100 14.2 18.8 15.7 144.7 73.6 67.8 3.6 6.8 17.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 20.6 28.5 19.5 121.4 67.9 63.8 13.6 18.5 27.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 9.9 12.1 13.0 139.4 70.7 63.4 2.9 8.4 10.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------