***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.12.2018.-06.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 5.1 5.5 5.3 1.9 75.3 70.1 3.3 3.9 4.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 5.4 5.5 5.4 2.1 75.3 71.8 2.6 4.0 4.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 6.9 7.6 5.8 2.0 76.1 70.8 4.3 5.3 6.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 44 56 100 1.7 1.7 2.4 1.5 68.4 65.5 -0.5 0.5 1.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 6.3 6.4 3.8 1.7 71.5 67.9 3.8 4.8 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 4.9 5.7 2.7 1.3 64.5 63.1 2.9 4.6 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 5.1 5.3 5.3 2.0 75.3 71.6 2.3 3.8 4.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 43 57 100 0.2 0.4 3.1 1.4 68.1 64.9 -1.7 -0.3 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 7.1 7.2 4.7 1.8 73.4 69.0 4.8 5.7 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 43 57 100 5.9 6.2 3.9 1.6 70.2 66.8 4.0 5.1 5.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 6.3 6.8 3.9 1.7 70.9 67.3 4.0 5.0 5.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 43 57 100 6.5 6.5 3.4 1.5 68.0 65.6 4.0 5.2 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 45 55 100 6.5 5.9 3.4 1.4 66.0 65.0 3.9 5.5 5.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 7.1 7.4 5.4 2.0 73.1 69.7 4.5 5.6 6.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 43 57 100 5.0 5.3 3.6 1.5 68.2 65.7 2.6 4.0 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 7.0 6.5 3.4 1.6 68.9 66.4 4.4 5.9 6.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 4.9 4.7 5.3 2.0 72.8 70.8 2.2 3.7 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 43 57 100 3.8 4.0 3.8 1.6 68.8 66.2 2.2 3.0 4.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 6.0 6.3 5.6 2.1 75.9 71.7 3.3 4.4 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 2.7 3.4 2.1 1.2 66.6 63.4 0.8 2.4 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 6.6 7.0 5.3 1.9 74.9 69.3 4.3 5.3 6.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 5.6 5.5 5.4 1.9 72.4 70.4 3.0 4.4 4.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 5.8 6.4 5.8 2.1 76.9 71.3 3.3 4.3 5.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 7.1 7.7 5.1 1.9 71.9 68.7 4.4 5.5 6.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 5.1 5.4 4.0 1.7 72.4 67.8 2.8 4.3 5.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 5.2 5.6 2.6 1.1 62.2 62.1 3.7 4.9 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 6.7 7.4 4.8 1.8 74.3 69.4 4.2 5.4 6.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 6.1 5.9 3.0 1.6 68.3 65.5 3.4 5.0 5.4 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 3.0 3.4 3.2 1.4 67.1 65.1 0.8 2.0 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 5.4 5.8 5.4 2.1 75.6 71.7 2.7 3.9 4.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------