***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.12.2018.-06.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 6.6 6.1 4.4 2.0 66.5 65.0 0.4 3.5 6.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 6.5 5.3 4.4 2.0 64.2 65.6 0.6 4.1 5.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 8.3 7.4 4.8 1.9 64.3 64.5 1.7 5.8 7.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 3.7 2.8 1.8 1.9 68.5 63.3 -2.0 1.1 2.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 7.3 7.0 2.9 1.9 67.1 63.4 1.8 4.8 6.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 22 78 100 7.9 5.7 2.4 1.8 64.1 63.2 2.2 4.7 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 6.1 4.9 4.4 2.0 65.0 65.9 0.1 3.4 4.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 0.9 0.3 2.7 1.8 63.6 62.8 -2.6 -1.4 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 8.3 8.4 3.8 1.8 65.9 63.2 2.6 5.9 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 29 71 100 7.1 6.4 3.3 1.8 64.7 62.9 2.6 5.2 6.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 7.9 7.5 3.0 1.9 66.9 63.6 2.5 4.7 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 8.3 7.3 2.8 1.8 64.9 63.0 3.5 5.5 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 7.6 6.4 2.4 1.8 64.2 62.8 2.1 5.1 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 8.3 8.3 4.3 1.7 63.3 61.4 2.8 5.0 8.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 7.6 6.6 2.6 1.8 67.3 63.5 1.4 4.0 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 8.3 7.5 2.6 1.9 66.8 63.4 2.9 5.4 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 5.9 4.8 4.5 1.9 64.4 64.7 0.4 3.4 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 4.6 3.4 3.4 1.8 63.5 62.2 1.3 2.9 3.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 7.1 5.9 4.6 2.0 63.5 64.9 0.8 4.1 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 4.6 4.0 1.8 1.7 61.2 62.1 -1.0 1.9 4.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 8.0 8.0 4.2 1.8 65.8 63.6 2.1 5.1 8.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 6.7 5.7 4.4 1.8 63.4 63.9 1.0 3.7 6.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 6.6 5.8 4.9 1.8 63.1 63.6 1.1 3.9 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 8.5 8.7 4.1 1.7 63.4 62.3 3.6 6.1 8.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 6.2 6.1 2.9 1.9 68.1 64.0 1.1 3.7 6.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 6.8 6.4 2.2 1.6 66.2 62.6 2.3 4.2 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 7.7 7.5 3.9 1.9 66.6 64.7 1.9 4.6 7.5 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 8.3 7.3 2.2 1.9 67.7 63.2 1.2 5.0 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 4.6 3.3 2.9 1.8 62.7 62.1 0.4 2.3 4.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 6.6 5.5 4.4 2.0 63.9 65.7 0.1 4.1 5.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------