***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.12.2018.-30.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 6.3 6.6 5.4 2.1 71.8 65.6 2.3 4.2 6.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 6.4 7.0 5.7 2.5 74.9 68.9 1.8 3.9 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 7.9 8.5 5.9 2.3 73.0 67.1 3.3 5.2 7.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 1.4 1.7 2.7 1.8 67.6 64.3 -1.3 1.0 1.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 7.1 6.5 3.8 1.9 68.6 64.7 3.4 4.0 6.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 6.0 5.3 3.2 1.6 62.5 62.0 1.2 4.0 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 6.0 6.6 5.6 2.4 74.4 68.1 1.6 3.0 5.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 0.6 0.1 3.5 1.7 64.5 63.6 -1.8 -0.7 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 8.1 8.5 4.8 2.0 68.5 65.1 3.6 5.1 8.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 7.4 7.8 4.2 1.9 66.4 64.1 2.1 5.1 7.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 5.9 7.2 3.8 1.8 66.7 64.0 3.2 5.1 7.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 6.0 6.9 3.6 1.7 63.6 63.4 3.7 5.4 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 6.2 5.7 3.1 1.5 59.4 61.0 2.7 5.5 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 8.3 8.4 5.5 2.3 68.9 66.6 3.7 5.6 7.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 5.1 5.6 3.6 1.9 69.7 64.8 1.4 3.4 5.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.6 6.5 3.4 1.7 63.4 62.5 4.1 5.7 6.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 5.9 5.8 5.7 2.4 74.0 68.6 2.0 2.7 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 4.9 4.8 4.3 1.8 65.1 63.8 1.7 2.7 4.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 6.7 7.5 5.9 2.6 75.4 69.0 2.4 4.4 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 3.3 3.3 2.5 1.4 61.8 61.4 -0.6 1.4 3.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 7.6 8.8 5.3 2.0 70.7 65.3 3.1 4.8 8.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 6.5 6.5 5.7 2.5 73.9 68.6 2.4 3.9 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 6.6 7.2 6.2 2.6 75.3 68.8 2.0 4.0 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 8.1 8.3 5.3 2.1 69.3 65.7 3.6 5.6 8.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 4.2 5.4 3.9 1.8 68.5 63.9 2.7 3.7 5.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 5.2 6.2 2.8 1.4 61.4 61.4 2.4 4.7 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 6.9 7.5 4.9 2.0 70.9 64.8 3.1 5.4 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 5.7 6.3 3.2 2.0 69.1 64.7 3.0 3.9 6.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 3.7 3.7 3.7 1.7 64.1 63.0 -1.0 1.8 4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 6.3 6.9 5.6 2.4 74.5 68.2 2.2 3.7 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------