***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.12.2018.-23.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 5.6 7.2 7.1 3.6 81.9 77.4 1.9 3.4 5.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 6.1 7.8 7.1 3.6 81.6 76.6 2.4 3.3 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 21 79 100 7.5 8.8 7.8 3.8 82.1 77.8 3.6 4.4 7.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 1.8 1.5 3.7 2.7 71.6 69.6 -1.7 0.5 1.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 19 81 100 7.5 8.4 5.6 3.4 77.3 74.9 2.3 3.9 6.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 6.0 6.7 4.6 3.0 73.4 71.6 2.6 3.5 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 19 81 100 6.0 7.5 6.9 3.5 82.1 77.0 2.0 2.9 4.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 0.6 1.0 5.0 3.1 76.9 73.0 -1.8 -0.9 0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 18 82 100 7.9 8.9 6.6 3.5 79.5 75.6 3.1 4.1 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 19 81 100 7.2 8.0 5.9 3.4 78.9 74.5 2.6 4.0 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 17 83 100 8.0 8.6 5.9 3.3 76.4 74.1 2.7 4.0 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 24 76 100 7.0 7.8 5.3 3.1 75.0 72.9 3.1 4.2 6.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 7.0 7.9 5.6 3.2 74.5 73.0 2.7 4.1 6.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 8.3 9.4 7.6 4.1 82.5 76.8 3.5 4.3 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 43 57 100 5.3 4.8 4.7 2.2 68.5 66.4 2.0 3.5 4.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 7.6 7.8 5.3 3.3 74.9 73.2 3.3 4.9 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 5.9 7.6 6.7 3.4 81.2 75.9 2.2 3.0 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 4.1 4.8 5.9 3.6 78.5 75.3 1.2 1.8 2.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 6.9 8.2 7.4 3.7 81.9 76.7 2.5 3.7 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 3.1 3.9 4.4 3.3 77.4 74.5 0.2 0.6 2.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 7.7 8.8 7.3 3.6 80.0 76.7 3.2 3.8 7.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 6.0 7.7 7.0 3.4 81.1 75.7 2.5 3.2 5.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 6.4 8.1 7.7 3.8 82.2 77.0 2.5 4.2 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 8.2 9.5 7.3 3.8 80.6 76.6 3.6 4.7 8.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 6.2 7.1 5.8 3.2 78.4 75.1 2.2 3.6 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 6.4 6.8 4.5 2.7 72.0 71.0 2.9 4.2 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 20 80 100 7.3 8.8 6.7 3.5 80.8 77.2 3.1 4.7 7.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 5.8 5.5 4.4 2.6 69.8 68.2 2.9 4.1 5.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 23 77 100 3.9 4.8 5.3 3.5 78.0 74.9 0.0 0.9 3.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 6.4 7.7 7.2 3.6 81.8 77.3 2.2 3.0 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------