***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.12.2018.-16.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 95 5 100 5.2 4.7 4.2 0.0 47.8 48.6 2.4 5.1 6.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 93 7 100 4.3 4.0 4.5 0.2 49.3 50.3 1.7 4.1 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 94 6 100 5.9 5.4 4.6 0.1 49.1 49.6 3.2 5.7 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 92 8 100 0.1 -0.6 1.3 -0.3 43.0 44.4 -1.1 -0.2 1.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 91 9 100 5.4 4.1 2.7 -0.3 43.0 45.5 3.6 5.1 7.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 4.7 3.2 0.4 -1.3 34.7 37.2 2.9 3.8 6.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 93 7 100 4.0 3.6 4.3 0.2 47.5 49.5 1.3 3.7 5.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 0.3 -1.3 1.1 -1.0 39.1 40.6 -1.5 0.0 1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 92 8 100 6.0 4.7 3.7 -0.1 45.1 47.5 3.1 5.7 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 89 11 100 5.0 4.0 2.1 -0.7 42.1 43.6 3.1 4.6 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 88 12 100 5.4 4.8 3.0 -0.3 43.8 45.3 3.5 5.0 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 5.6 3.7 1.9 -0.7 40.5 41.8 3.0 5.1 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 5.1 4.1 2.5 -0.7 40.3 41.7 3.9 4.4 7.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 92 8 100 5.8 5.4 4.1 -0.1 49.0 49.4 2.9 5.5 7.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 93 7 100 4.5 4.4 3.7 0.1 47.2 47.3 3.7 4.4 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 5.5 4.9 2.3 -0.5 41.7 43.0 3.9 5.0 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 91 9 100 3.7 3.3 4.1 0.2 46.8 49.4 2.0 3.4 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 87 13 100 3.3 2.6 1.6 -0.9 40.4 42.0 2.3 3.0 4.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 93 7 100 4.7 4.5 4.6 0.2 50.3 50.4 2.3 4.5 6.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 3.5 1.8 -0.3 -1.5 36.0 37.5 0.6 2.7 3.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 92 8 100 5.9 4.7 4.4 -0.1 45.6 47.6 3.5 5.6 7.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 92 8 100 4.3 4.0 4.3 0.1 49.1 49.1 2.3 4.0 5.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 92 8 100 4.9 4.9 4.6 0.2 51.3 50.4 2.6 4.6 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 91 9 100 6.3 4.8 3.8 -0.2 46.5 47.5 3.0 6.0 7.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 94 6 100 5.0 4.1 3.2 -0.2 44.0 46.1 2.6 4.9 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 4.8 3.4 0.8 -1.3 34.1 36.2 3.2 3.8 6.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 95 5 100 5.4 4.1 3.8 -0.1 45.5 46.9 3.3 5.2 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 91 9 100 5.1 4.3 2.3 -0.3 44.8 45.4 3.5 4.9 5.9 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 2.5 1.4 0.9 -1.1 39.0 40.1 -0.4 2.0 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 93 7 100 4.6 4.3 4.5 0.2 49.5 50.0 1.7 4.4 5.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------