***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.12.2018.-06.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 -0.7 -0.5 -0.1 2.0 75.0 72.0 -3.0 -1.5 -1.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 -0.8 -0.5 -0.3 2.1 77.2 74.1 -3.3 -1.8 -1.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 0.7 1.0 -0.1 2.0 75.1 72.6 -1.3 0.0 0.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 87 13 100 -5.2 -4.3 -3.1 1.6 66.8 66.7 -6.8 -5.5 -4.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 -1.3 -1.0 -2.3 1.9 70.9 69.6 -3.3 -2.0 -1.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 -2.4 -1.8 -4.9 1.3 64.9 63.2 -3.9 -2.5 -1.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 -0.9 -0.7 -0.2 2.1 76.5 73.5 -3.0 -1.6 -1.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 46 54 100 -5.9 -5.8 -4.4 1.6 68.3 65.9 -7.9 -6.8 -5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 -0.4 -0.2 -1.9 2.0 72.5 71.5 -2.6 -1.4 -0.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 -1.1 -0.7 -3.5 1.7 70.6 68.3 -3.1 -1.7 -0.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 -1.2 -0.9 -3.0 1.8 70.3 68.3 -3.7 -2.0 -1.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 45 55 100 -1.9 -1.6 -3.8 1.7 67.2 66.1 -3.4 -2.6 -1.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 -1.7 -1.4 -3.9 1.5 65.6 64.7 -3.4 -1.9 -1.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 -0.5 -0.3 -2.1 2.1 77.1 72.5 -2.7 -1.0 -0.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 -2.3 -1.6 -1.9 1.4 66.3 65.5 -3.3 -2.6 -1.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 44 56 100 -0.6 -0.4 -3.6 1.6 67.4 66.4 -2.4 -1.2 -0.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 -1.1 -0.8 -0.2 2.1 77.3 73.5 -3.1 -1.9 -1.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 -2.8 -2.4 -4.1 1.8 71.9 68.3 -5.4 -3.6 -2.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 -0.9 -0.6 -0.4 2.0 77.2 73.7 -3.2 -1.6 -0.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 -6.0 -4.8 -5.4 1.4 67.1 64.1 -7.4 -6.4 -4.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 -0.5 -0.3 -0.8 2.0 72.8 72.0 -3.0 -1.3 -0.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 -1.2 -0.9 -0.4 2.0 76.7 73.1 -3.1 -2.1 -1.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 -1.2 -0.8 -0.6 1.9 77.2 72.7 -3.4 -2.0 -1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 -1.2 -0.9 -2.3 1.9 74.8 71.3 -3.5 -1.7 -1.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 -1.0 -0.8 -1.2 1.9 71.1 70.2 -2.7 -1.7 -0.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 -1.9 -1.3 -4.3 1.2 64.8 61.6 -3.1 -2.1 -1.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 -0.3 0.1 -0.4 2.1 74.5 71.9 -2.5 -1.3 -0.3 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 -3.1 -2.2 -3.0 1.6 66.1 65.6 -4.3 -3.3 -2.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 43 57 100 -3.3 -3.5 -4.8 1.5 68.4 66.0 -5.3 -4.2 -3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 -0.6 -0.5 -0.2 2.0 76.7 73.5 -3.0 -1.2 -0.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------