***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.12.2018.-23.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 -0.1 1.5 1.5 3.8 83.3 79.8 -3.5 -2.3 -1.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 -0.1 1.4 1.2 3.7 82.3 78.5 -3.5 -2.4 -0.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 19 81 100 2.5 3.5 1.4 3.7 83.7 79.4 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 43 57 100 -4.1 -4.0 -2.0 2.7 69.0 69.5 -6.7 -6.0 -4.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 -0.8 0.2 -0.7 3.5 77.9 75.2 -3.6 -3.0 -0.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 -3.0 -1.6 -3.7 2.5 66.9 66.5 -4.7 -3.6 -1.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 0.3 1.5 1.2 3.7 82.9 78.4 -3.9 -2.4 -1.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 -5.8 -4.3 -2.9 3.2 73.5 71.2 -9.2 -8.4 -5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 0.5 1.4 -0.7 3.4 78.5 75.7 -3.2 -1.7 -0.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 -0.6 -0.2 -2.2 3.3 75.9 73.2 -3.3 -2.3 -0.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 -0.6 -0.3 -1.6 3.2 74.3 72.8 -3.3 -2.6 -0.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 -1.0 -0.3 -2.1 3.3 74.3 72.3 -4.6 -3.0 -0.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 -0.5 -0.1 -2.3 3.1 71.7 70.9 -3.6 -2.4 -0.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 0.8 1.9 -0.7 3.8 81.2 77.5 -2.6 -1.4 0.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 -1.8 -1.7 -1.2 2.0 66.0 66.1 -3.2 -2.1 -1.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 0.0 0.9 -2.2 3.0 71.5 70.8 -2.8 -1.9 -0.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 0.0 1.2 1.1 3.6 81.4 77.0 -3.6 -2.8 -1.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 -2.0 -0.9 -2.5 3.6 77.2 73.9 -5.6 -4.4 -1.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 0.5 1.7 1.1 3.6 82.9 78.8 -3.3 -1.8 -0.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 -3.9 -2.2 -3.2 3.7 77.7 73.7 -9.1 -7.3 -3.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 0.5 1.8 0.7 3.7 82.2 78.4 -3.1 -2.2 -0.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 -0.3 1.1 1.0 3.5 81.9 77.3 -3.6 -2.3 -1.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 0.2 1.3 0.7 3.5 83.7 78.8 -3.0 -2.3 -0.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 -0.5 0.2 -0.9 3.5 80.2 76.0 -3.2 -2.1 -0.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 -0.1 1.2 0.5 3.6 80.8 77.3 -3.3 -2.4 -0.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 -0.7 -0.5 -2.5 2.9 72.9 69.5 -4.0 -2.5 -0.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 20 80 100 0.9 2.1 1.3 4.0 83.4 79.6 -3.4 -2.2 -0.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 -2.7 -2.5 -2.0 2.4 65.6 66.9 -4.8 -3.0 -2.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 -2.5 -1.2 -3.3 3.4 75.7 72.1 -6.6 -5.3 -2.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 0.6 2.0 1.3 3.7 83.3 79.2 -3.0 -2.2 -0.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------