***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.12.2012.-06.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 0.0 47.9 110.9 66.2 57.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 23.7 46.2 43.8 107.4 64.3 53.8 26.5 35.1 46.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 50.1 55.4 48.0 110.3 65.3 57.0 41.0 44.7 56.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 50.8 58.2 54.0 119.3 67.6 61.1 36.7 45.2 57.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 55.4 59.6 52.2 113.2 66.1 59.6 44.6 52.2 59.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 51.1 51.3 52.2 116.3 68.8 62.4 34.5 43.6 50.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 45.6 51.7 43.7 107.9 64.4 53.6 25.8 40.8 53.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 68.7 73.2 55.1 112.6 65.3 58.4 55.2 62.0 73.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 40.1 39.8 53.0 111.9 64.5 58.9 29.7 35.2 40.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 52.6 55.5 54.7 110.3 62.6 57.8 39.1 48.7 56.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 54.4 49.8 50.5 115.0 66.4 60.9 41.4 46.2 49.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 58.5 57.9 50.5 115.2 67.4 61.0 34.4 45.8 56.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 59.3 60.9 50.6 112.5 69.5 60.6 39.9 50.1 57.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 47.1 68.3 53.4 104.6 60.7 55.0 51.4 63.5 72.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 43 57 100 61.1 63.8 56.9 131.9 72.6 65.6 32.0 46.8 62.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 58.8 60.9 50.2 115.4 68.6 61.6 35.2 44.4 57.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 41.8 42.8 42.1 107.8 63.2 52.7 29.4 36.0 43.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 49.5 48.1 58.6 108.0 60.7 55.8 35.4 47.3 50.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 27.8 53.4 44.8 107.7 64.5 54.7 24.1 35.2 54.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 42.3 64.1 69.4 110.8 64.2 54.6 46.0 53.8 65.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 48.9 51.3 50.9 111.3 64.6 58.0 33.1 45.3 51.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 28.1 44.8 43.3 106.0 60.4 52.4 26.2 36.9 46.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 28.8 51.4 47.1 107.4 64.9 56.0 26.2 37.7 52.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 53.3 55.3 53.6 107.8 62.1 56.6 46.4 51.1 56.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 32.1 50.9 53.0 111.0 65.2 56.8 31.1 42.4 51.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 56.5 55.9 51.2 113.2 67.7 59.6 34.3 45.1 55.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 30.2 60.4 50.4 109.4 64.0 55.5 27.2 43.5 61.2 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 53.7 54.2 53.8 123.9 70.3 63.5 30.4 43.2 50.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 61.9 79.3 62.0 107.0 62.1 54.5 60.5 75.5 82.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 44.8 48.7 45.0 108.4 65.4 55.0 25.5 39.1 48.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------