***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.12.2012.-06.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 9999.0 0.0 10.8 105.8 61.6 53.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 2.7 8.9 10.5 107.1 62.3 52.7 2.1 5.6 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 4.1 13.9 10.5 107.0 63.6 52.4 5.6 8.2 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 6.3 15.6 11.2 117.3 66.7 54.0 5.8 11.4 15.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 6.6 14.2 10.5 110.2 61.7 53.3 7.1 12.4 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 9.9 11.8 10.1 109.1 57.2 54.9 5.1 8.3 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 9.9 10.4 10.5 103.5 59.8 52.6 2.7 7.9 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 17.0 17.5 11.3 106.8 59.6 53.8 9.2 14.3 22.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 5.0 10.8 10.5 106.3 56.8 52.3 6.9 9.4 12.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 6.4 13.0 11.1 105.3 56.6 52.9 4.7 11.7 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 5.4 11.8 9.8 109.2 59.6 54.1 5.3 9.9 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 11.8 13.0 9.9 107.7 58.4 54.2 5.4 9.9 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 12.6 13.7 10.1 109.0 56.0 54.6 6.1 10.8 16.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.0 18.5 12.5 109.0 63.5 53.2 6.6 13.9 18.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 2.9 16.3 11.3 126.0 70.6 55.2 1.6 6.6 13.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 4.5 10.8 9.7 111.1 56.5 54.8 5.2 8.2 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 7.6 10.6 10.6 111.8 61.3 54.3 3.7 4.6 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 11.3 11.4 12.8 105.1 60.1 52.7 5.1 9.8 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 4.6 11.3 10.6 109.2 63.7 52.5 2.5 8.4 11.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 13.8 16.0 16.0 110.6 62.9 54.0 4.8 10.3 17.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 4.8 13.3 10.6 107.2 61.3 52.8 4.7 8.7 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 8.2 10.2 10.8 114.9 65.8 54.2 1.8 5.0 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 4.8 11.7 10.9 110.6 64.0 52.6 2.3 8.4 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 17.3 17.3 11.8 107.2 61.5 52.7 5.7 16.5 17.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 4.7 12.6 12.1 111.0 65.4 54.1 4.5 8.8 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 10.4 10.7 9.9 108.2 60.7 55.2 3.9 7.4 13.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 3.3 9.6 11.6 105.5 62.1 53.0 4.1 5.9 10.6 29 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 4.7 14.7 10.5 119.3 66.2 54.4 2.7 10.9 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 17.2 18.2 14.2 106.9 62.0 53.3 8.1 14.4 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 3.1 8.9 10.5 105.1 63.3 52.1 2.9 6.1 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------