***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.12.2012.-30.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 0.0 12.6 112.0 66.9 53.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 9.9 14.2 11.6 110.3 60.7 54.8 4.4 6.7 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 13.6 17.4 13.1 115.0 68.1 54.6 6.6 11.2 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 12.9 17.9 14.0 114.5 72.0 54.7 5.4 10.6 14.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 12.2 15.5 14.5 117.6 70.4 54.7 7.1 9.9 14.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.7 11.2 14.1 112.0 63.3 53.3 3.5 7.6 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 12.2 15.4 11.5 111.4 62.9 54.9 3.8 9.4 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 16.0 19.8 15.7 118.4 66.9 55.7 7.9 12.9 19.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 2.8 11.9 15.1 118.1 70.2 54.8 3.2 4.9 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 3.9 11.7 15.8 117.7 69.2 55.2 4.2 6.8 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.9 14.9 14.0 118.0 69.9 55.6 5.7 9.0 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.4 11.6 14.0 118.8 66.6 56.0 4.0 7.9 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 9.7 10.8 14.2 115.9 62.6 54.4 3.7 6.9 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 15.4 19.4 15.7 119.3 66.9 56.0 6.5 11.9 19.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 11.2 18.8 13.2 112.8 68.1 55.6 1.1 7.0 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 8.8 12.1 13.8 116.0 67.1 54.5 3.2 7.3 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 9.8 10.7 11.0 110.2 60.4 54.6 5.2 7.8 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 3.9 10.5 17.3 118.3 68.8 55.0 5.3 7.8 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 12.6 12.9 12.1 112.1 62.1 55.0 4.3 8.9 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 13.1 15.6 20.2 119.3 67.7 55.1 5.0 11.1 15.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 11.2 15.0 14.1 115.2 70.3 54.1 5.6 9.5 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 11.1 13.3 11.6 110.3 60.2 54.7 4.9 9.3 15.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 9.8 12.7 13.2 115.9 65.5 55.3 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.2 13.8 15.7 118.9 67.8 55.6 5.4 9.1 13.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 13.5 18.7 14.2 112.6 68.0 53.5 6.5 10.3 17.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.7 11.8 14.0 114.7 62.7 53.8 3.0 9.1 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 11.5 14.8 13.3 110.9 65.4 53.3 3.8 7.7 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 10.6 18.3 13.5 113.2 69.4 54.7 3.8 6.6 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 16.3 19.6 18.5 118.2 68.5 54.8 7.9 14.0 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 11.3 16.7 11.9 111.0 63.8 54.9 4.9 7.8 17.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------