***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.12.2012.-23.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 13.3 122.1 69.5 58.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 8.2 10.1 12.6 117.1 70.0 56.2 3.3 6.2 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 11.2 17.3 13.6 123.1 71.4 57.7 4.7 8.1 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 13.7 14.7 15.3 139.5 71.1 62.0 7.3 12.9 14.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 16.4 18.4 14.5 133.6 70.4 60.7 9.0 12.0 16.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 17.5 18.4 15.3 141.3 73.0 63.3 7.4 13.6 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 7.4 11.8 12.5 117.7 70.1 55.9 4.1 5.4 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 15.7 17.8 15.8 133.4 70.7 60.9 13.3 14.6 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 10.5 10.8 14.7 132.0 70.9 60.0 6.3 8.4 10.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 13.2 15.2 15.5 132.5 71.7 60.3 7.1 12.3 14.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 14.1 14.0 14.3 140.1 72.4 62.8 8.4 10.1 13.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 13.1 14.5 14.6 140.9 72.2 63.2 7.6 9.3 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 18.7 21.1 14.3 138.8 71.9 62.5 9.4 12.5 18.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 7.2 16.6 15.5 121.1 72.1 57.5 7.5 11.7 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 10.9 20.3 16.7 156.2 77.7 64.0 3.2 8.7 17.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 16.8 18.7 14.0 139.4 73.5 62.4 6.7 10.6 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 4.6 13.6 12.2 117.8 73.5 55.9 3.6 7.9 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 9.9 11.6 16.7 127.2 72.8 58.5 5.3 8.9 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 2.9 11.6 12.9 117.4 71.3 56.6 2.8 5.2 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 14.4 18.4 19.4 120.6 68.1 56.8 7.1 13.0 18.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 10.1 11.3 13.9 127.1 69.6 58.8 6.5 9.2 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 3.1 11.9 12.4 114.0 72.1 55.0 3.1 5.1 9.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 3.6 10.3 13.4 117.9 71.0 57.1 2.9 5.9 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 6.3 14.1 15.2 125.3 72.1 58.1 6.9 8.5 12.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 10.6 15.8 14.1 121.3 67.0 57.8 4.4 8.2 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 17.5 18.7 14.7 134.8 73.8 61.8 5.6 12.4 17.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 11.0 14.1 13.7 118.8 68.1 57.2 4.2 9.1 14.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 11.6 17.6 15.5 147.7 75.5 63.1 4.3 9.9 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 18.6 24.1 17.6 122.1 68.9 57.2 11.8 16.1 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 7.2 9.6 12.9 118.8 72.6 56.8 3.3 6.4 8.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------