***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.12.2012.-16.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 0.0 11.2 103.3 58.2 50.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 7.1 8.7 9.0 93.7 56.4 46.9 2.3 5.1 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 9.9 8.5 10.8 96.0 53.7 47.6 4.9 7.8 11.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 11.2 14.7 13.6 107.9 63.8 57.0 7.1 9.8 15.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 6.2 10.0 12.6 94.7 55.3 49.4 8.3 9.2 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 6.5 8.1 12.8 104.2 63.2 54.9 3.7 5.0 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 9.0 8.6 9.2 97.9 58.6 48.4 3.5 7.0 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 19.9 18.3 12.4 93.2 54.9 48.8 12.3 17.8 24.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 6.0 9.0 12.6 93.7 51.9 48.3 6.1 8.6 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 8.9 13.0 12.2 88.1 48.1 45.9 8.3 13.6 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 6.8 11.6 12.4 96.6 54.5 50.8 7.7 10.9 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 14.2 14.3 12.0 96.3 59.5 51.9 8.8 13.1 16.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 10.5 12.4 12.0 91.4 59.1 50.0 7.1 8.9 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 8.2 12.0 9.7 71.2 40.1 38.9 9.6 14.8 20.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 14.7 19.1 15.7 133.2 77.6 68.0 2.3 6.8 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 10.7 9.0 12.7 99.0 58.3 53.2 5.5 8.0 11.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 8.3 6.8 8.3 90.0 55.8 45.9 3.7 6.4 9.4 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 7.6 11.4 11.8 82.3 46.5 43.4 6.5 12.1 15.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 9.9 7.6 9.3 91.3 53.9 46.3 3.7 7.5 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 6.6 11.4 13.8 91.4 52.1 46.4 8.1 10.1 13.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 9.0 8.5 12.2 97.1 56.5 49.6 5.7 7.8 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 10.0 7.6 8.4 84.4 50.4 43.8 4.7 7.3 13.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 5.2 7.7 9.7 85.6 49.0 44.4 6.0 7.8 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 7.5 9.4 10.9 81.7 46.5 43.0 6.6 11.4 19.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 7.7 6.9 12.6 100.0 57.5 50.7 3.8 6.2 7.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.6 10.7 12.5 96.9 60.2 53.9 8.2 9.8 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 8.1 6.6 11.8 102.2 57.2 49.7 2.8 5.6 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 9.3 18.4 14.2 117.1 69.3 61.8 3.6 6.8 17.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 11.9 17.2 11.8 80.5 44.1 42.0 13.6 18.5 27.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 10.3 9.5 9.7 97.7 57.0 47.6 2.9 8.4 10.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------