***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.12.2012.-06.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9999.0 0.0 1.4 -1.6 30.9 35.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 2.2 2.1 0.3 -2.4 22.8 28.8 2.6 4.0 4.8 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 3.9 4.3 1.7 -1.4 33.6 36.9 4.3 5.3 6.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 -1.1 -1.2 -0.6 -1.8 25.2 31.7 -0.5 0.5 1.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 5.4 4.0 0.6 -1.3 35.2 37.8 3.8 4.8 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 4.9 4.4 0.7 -0.4 47.9 46.4 2.9 4.6 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 1.7 1.7 0.1 -2.4 22.5 28.4 2.3 3.8 4.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 -0.1 -0.7 1.0 -0.6 44.9 44.9 -1.7 -0.3 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 6.1 4.9 1.6 -1.0 37.5 40.6 4.8 5.7 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 5.3 4.7 1.4 -0.7 43.1 44.0 4.0 5.1 5.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 5.4 4.5 1.1 -0.8 40.0 42.3 4.0 5.0 5.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 5.6 4.8 1.3 -0.5 45.4 45.6 4.0 5.2 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 5.9 5.5 1.3 -0.3 49.4 48.3 3.9 5.5 5.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 6.1 5.2 1.9 -1.0 41.4 41.0 4.5 5.6 6.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 1.8 1.7 -0.2 -2.0 23.3 30.0 2.6 4.0 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 6.3 5.8 0.9 -0.7 42.5 43.7 4.4 5.9 6.5 30 Nis 06700G01 70 30 0 100 1.4 0.7 -0.1 -2.7 20.5 26.2 2.2 3.7 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 3.3 2.9 1.5 -0.5 47.3 46.0 2.2 3.0 4.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 2.7 2.5 0.7 -2.2 25.0 31.1 3.3 4.4 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 2.7 2.1 0.1 -0.5 45.5 44.8 0.8 2.4 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 5.7 4.5 1.7 -1.2 35.8 38.7 4.3 5.3 6.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 1.9 1.9 0.3 -2.4 22.4 28.0 3.0 4.4 4.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 2.8 3.0 1.4 -1.7 29.7 35.1 3.3 4.3 5.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 6.0 5.3 2.0 -0.8 43.4 43.2 4.4 5.5 6.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 2.6 2.5 0.2 -1.6 29.0 33.9 2.8 4.3 5.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 5.2 5.1 1.2 -0.2 50.7 48.7 3.7 4.9 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 3.5 3.5 0.8 -1.6 29.3 34.5 4.2 5.4 6.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 3.5 3.0 -0.1 -1.7 27.2 33.4 3.4 5.0 5.4 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 2.3 1.9 1.0 -0.4 49.0 46.9 0.8 2.0 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 2.3 2.3 0.7 -2.2 25.1 30.9 2.7 3.9 4.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------